Moody’s upgrades Morocco’s outlook to positive

Saturday 07 - 14:30

Moody’s Ratings has revised Morocco’s sovereign credit outlook from “stable” to “positive,” signaling structural improvements in the kingdom’s economic and fiscal strength. The move could pave the way for a potential upgrade of Morocco’s overall credit rating.

One key factor highlighted by Moody’s is the steady acceleration of non-agricultural growth, expected to surpass 5% in 2025. This trend reflects Morocco’s growing economic resilience and its gradual reduction of reliance on historically volatile agricultural production.

The agency noted that this transformation supports a more stable and predictable economic trajectory in the coming years. The performance is further underpinned by substantial public and private investments in strategic sectors such as transportation, logistics, energy, and water. These projects not only enhance national connectivity but also strengthen Morocco’s global competitiveness while mitigating climate-related risks.

Fiscal consolidation and social reforms
On the public finance front, Moody’s commended improvements in budgetary performance, which should help contain debt levels over the medium term. Despite ongoing pressures from social protection spending and investment needs, the agency believes that increased revenue mobilization and more targeted social spending act as effective risk buffers. Prudent macroeconomic management and adequate foreign exchange reserves also strengthen Morocco’s ability to absorb external shocks. If fiscal discipline continues alongside sustained growth, public debt could even decline faster than anticipated.

Structural challenges remain
Despite the positive outlook, Moody’s maintains Morocco’s Ba1 rating due to limiting factors. Per capita income remains below that of higher-rated countries, and the economy is still exposed to climate shocks and potential public enterprise liabilities.

Nonetheless, the positive outlook reflects Morocco’s strategic direction, combining structural reforms with economic diversification into higher value-added sectors. If these developments continue, Morocco could achieve a further step forward in its sovereign credit rating in the near future.