Lula leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil presidential run-off, poll shows

Wednesday 01 July 2026 - 11:05

By: Sahili Aya

Lula leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil presidential run-off, poll shows

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would defeat opposition Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round presidential run-off, according to a new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released Wednesday, signaling a modest lead ahead of Brazil’s October election cycle.

The survey suggests Lula maintains an advantage over the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, although the gap remains competitive in a polarized political landscape.

Lula holds lead in hypothetical run-off

The poll shows Lula securing 48.8% of votes in a run-off scenario, compared with 42.3% for Flávio Bolsonaro.

The result marks a shift from an earlier April survey in which both candidates were tied at 48%, indicating a recent improvement in Lula’s position.

First-round scenario also favors Lula

In a simulated first-round vote, Lula would also lead comfortably with 46.3%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 36.6%.

Other candidates trail significantly, including Renan Santos with 7.8%, Ronaldo Caiado with 2.9%, and Romeu Zema with 2.0%, according to the poll.

Tight race in a divided political landscape

The findings highlight Brazil’s continued political polarization between the left-leaning administration of Lula and the conservative bloc aligned with the Bolsonaro political family.

Despite Lula’s lead, the relatively close margins in a potential run-off suggest a highly competitive election environment ahead of the October vote.

Poll methodology

The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey was conducted between June 26 and June 30, sampling 4,999 respondents. The poll carries a margin of error of one percentage point, according to the methodology provided.

As the election approaches, analysts expect further volatility in voter preferences as campaign dynamics intensify across Brazil’s major political blocs.