Harris Needs to Reconnect with the Young Latino Voters Biden was Losing

Thursday 25 July 2024 - 12:30

In a surprising turn of events that has reshaped the political landscape, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee for the 2024 presidential election. This development has injected new energy into the campaign, particularly among young Latino voters who had been showing signs of disengagement from the political process.

Rebecca Contreras, a 30-year-old social media marketing specialist from San Antonio, Texas, exemplifies this renewed optimism. Initially planning to vote for President Joe Biden despite doubts about his electability, Contreras now feels a surge of confidence with Harris at the helm. "Maybe there's some hope again, and our votes can matter," she remarked, echoing a sentiment shared by many progressive Latino voters.

The shift in the Democratic ticket comes at a critical time for the party. Recent polls had indicated a concerning trend: the once-reliable support of younger Latinos was wavering. A May survey by the University of Chicago GenForward project revealed that among voters under 40, including Latinos, only one-third would vote for Biden. The Latino breakdown was particularly telling, with 32% supporting Trump, 28% backing Biden, and another 28% opting for "someone else."

This erosion of support was not lost on Democratic strategists. The party had been grappling with the aftermath of the 2020 election, where then-President Trump and the Republican Party made significant inroads with Hispanic voters. The trend seemed poised to continue in 2024, with polls showing Biden and Trump essentially tied among Latino voters.

Adding to the Democrats' concerns was the potential for Latino voters to either support third-party candidates or abstain from voting altogether. This scenario was particularly worrisome given the demographic's growing electoral significance. According to UnidosUS, a national Latino advocacy group, one in five Hispanic voters will be casting their ballot in a presidential election for the first time this year. Moreover, over a third of these new Latino voters identify as independent or nonpartisan, making them a crucial swing demographic.

The introduction of Harris as the de facto nominee has the potential to reverse these trends. Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, a Democratic firm specializing in Latino polling, shared preliminary data from a mid-July poll of Nevada Latinos. The results suggest that Harris is already winning back some Latino voters who had drifted away from Biden. Notably, she's also attracting a segment of voters who had previously indicated they would sit out a Biden-Trump rematch.

Harris's appeal among Latino voters, particularly younger ones and Latinas, is substantiated by internal Biden campaign polling. Democratic pollster Matt Barreto reported that Harris holds a significant advantage over Biden among Latinos who disapprove of both Biden and Trump. The Vice President's popularity with Latinos aged 18-29 is reportedly 16 points higher than Biden's.

However, Harris faces several challenges as she seeks to consolidate Latino support. Chief among these are voter frustrations over the high cost of living and immigration issues. Republicans have erroneously labeled her as the "border czar," attempting to tie her to perceived failures in immigration policy. Harris will need to address these concerns while also introducing herself to voters who feel they don't know her well.

Evelyn Jimenez, a 20-year-old first-time voter from San Antonio, expressed skepticism about Harris, stating, "I really didn't see her do much in these four years. I didn't see that she was involved." This sentiment underscores the need for Harris to effectively communicate her accomplishments and vision to young Latino voters.

One issue that could work in Harris's favor is her strong stance on abortion rights. With more Latinas living in states with abortion bans and restrictions, and support for abortion rights increasing among Hispanics over the decades, Harris's outspoken advocacy on this issue could resonate strongly. The Vice President has been vocal in criticizing Trump and Republicans on abortion, particularly during visits to battleground states like Arizona.

Gabriela Torres, a 29-year-old high school teacher, highlighted the importance of this issue: "Now I look at my daughter and it's not just abortion, it's reproductive rights. It's the right to get birth control, to have access to safe abortions. My hope is that maybe with a female in power, those rights can be returned."

As the campaign intensifies, Harris's ability to connect with young Latino voters could prove decisive. Markus Ceniceros, a 20-year-old school board member in Arizona, praised Harris's ability to energize crowds, noting, "She knows how to rally a crowd, and she's kind of been the spokesman for young voters since last year for the campaign and I think it's working."

With four months until the election and tight races expected in several battleground states, Democratic-leaning political organizations are redoubling their efforts to mobilize and register Latino voters. The combined forces of Voto Latino, UnidosUS, and Mi Familia Vota are launching a concerted campaign to support Harris and ensure robust Latino turnout.

As the election approaches, all eyes will be on Harris to see if she can capitalize on this initial surge of enthusiasm and translate it into tangible support at the ballot box. The Vice President's performance in the coming months could well determine whether the Democratic Party can recapture the young Latino vote and secure victory in November.