Global banks raise Brent forecasts as oil supply risks intensify

12:28

By: Azzat Manal

Global banks raise Brent forecasts as oil supply risks intensify

Major investment banks are raising their forecasts for Brent crude prices as persistent disruptions to shipping routes in the Middle East increase concerns over the security of global oil supplies.

Oil prices have moved above the $100-a-barrel threshold amid growing fears that prolonged disruptions to maritime traffic could tighten supply and push the risk premium higher across energy markets.

Commerzbank has raised its year-end Brent forecast to $85 per barrel, up from its previous estimate of $75, according to Reuters. The revision reflects growing uncertainty over the impact of continued disruptions on oil flows and transportation.

HSBC has also revised its outlook, now expecting Brent to average around $90 per barrel in 2026 and $85 in 2027. The bank said oil markets are adapting to a new environment in which partial disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could persist.

Bank of America has lifted its Brent forecast for the second half of the year to $83 per barrel and expects prices to average $75 in 2027. At the same time, it warned that a broader deterioration in supply conditions could send crude prices as high as $120 per barrel.

The latest adjustments follow a similar move by Goldman Sachs, which increased its forecasts for both Brent and U.S. crude by $5 per barrel for 2026 and 2027, citing expectations that disruptions to shipping in the Middle East could continue into next year.

The series of upward revisions highlights mounting concerns over the ability of global oil markets to absorb prolonged disruptions to maritime trade. Any expansion of the disruption to additional supply routes could place further pressure on inventories and transportation networks.

Higher oil prices could also have wider economic consequences. A sustained increase in energy costs would raise production and transport expenses for businesses and could revive inflationary pressures in major economies, complicating efforts by central banks to manage interest rates.

For oil-importing countries in particular, a prolonged period of elevated crude prices could increase energy bills and put additional pressure on consumers and businesses. Markets are therefore closely watching developments around key maritime routes, with any sign of further disruption likely to influence crude prices rapidly.