Boumadine project value jumps to $3.5 billion in new economic assessment

The Boumadine polymetallic project in Morocco has recorded a substantial improvement in its economic outlook, with an updated preliminary economic assessment placing its after-tax net present value at $3.5 billion.

The figure represents a sharp increase from the $1.5 billion valuation reported in the previous assessment, while the initial capital requirement has remained relatively contained. The updated study also extends the projected mine life and anticipates higher silver output.

Economic value rises sharply

Canadian mining company Aya Gold & Silver released the updated preliminary economic assessment for Boumadine on September 9, outlining a significantly stronger financial profile for the project in Morocco's Errachidia province.

Using a 5% discount rate, the study estimates an after-tax net present value of $3.5 billion, compared with $1.5 billion previously. That represents an increase of approximately 140%.

The improvement comes despite only a modest rise in upfront capital expenditure. Initial investment is now estimated at $463 million, compared with $446 million in the previous assessment, an increase of roughly 4%.

The resulting NPV-to-initial-capital ratio has risen to 7.6 from 3.3. The after-tax internal rate of return has also increased to 93%, compared with 47% previously, while the estimated payback period has fallen from 2.1 years to just 0.7 years.

Higher metal prices strengthen the model

Several changes to the project's economic assumptions have contributed to the stronger results.

Aya's updated model uses a gold price assumption of $3,500 per ounce and a silver price of $50 per ounce, compared with $2,800 and $30 respectively in the previous study.

The company has also incorporated improved expected payability for metals contained in concentrates. Average payability has increased to about 83%, from 73% previously. Gold payability is estimated at 82%, while silver reaches 85%.

Under the revised scenario, Boumadine is expected to generate approximately $10.995 billion in cumulative revenue over its projected operating life. EBITDA is estimated at $6.145 billion, while cumulative free cash flow is projected at $4.694 billion.

Longer mine life and increased production

The updated mine plan extends the expected operating period to 14 years, compared with 11 years under the previous assessment.

Average production during the first five years is projected at approximately 348,000 gold-equivalent ounces per year. Across the full mine life, average annual production is expected to stand at around 271,000 gold-equivalent ounces.

Total projected output over 14 years includes approximately 2.25 million ounces of gold, 81.2 million ounces of silver, 422,000 tonnes of zinc and 195,000 tonnes of lead.

Silver production has increased by roughly 16% compared with the 2025 assessment, while total gold-equivalent production is up by about 7%.

Resource base leaves room for expansion

The economic model covers only part of the project's broader resource potential.

The updated mineral resource estimate identifies 8.6 million tonnes of indicated resources containing approximately 1.1 million gold-equivalent ounces. Inferred resources amount to another 45.4 million tonnes, containing an estimated 4.3 million gold-equivalent ounces.

The resource update incorporates around 190,000 additional metres of drilling across 453 holes since the previous estimate. Total drilling at the project had reached approximately 320,000 metres as of February 28, 2026.

The distinction between indicated and inferred resources remains important, as the latter category does not constitute mineral reserves and cannot automatically be converted into economically mineable reserves.

Open-pit and underground mining planned

The proposed development combines open-pit and underground mining, with an initial processing capacity of 8,000 tonnes of ore per day.

The processing facility would use flotation technology to produce marketable zinc, lead and pyrite concentrates, with gold and silver expected to provide the principal sources of revenue.

The study estimates metallurgical recoveries of 96.1% for gold, 96.4% for silver, 74.7% for zinc and 82% for lead.

The development plan also includes a dedicated 72-kilometre power line and a substation. Concentrates would be transported by road to Nador West Port, approximately 640 kilometres from the project.

Water for processing is expected to come from nearby communities and wells, supplemented by treated urban wastewater.

Of the $463 million initial capital requirement, approximately $99 million is allocated to contingencies. Construction is expected to take around two years.

Drilling and feasibility work continue

Aya is already preparing the next stage of Boumadine's development.

The company plans to complete a 400,000-metre drilling programme by the end of 2027. Around 360,000 metres are earmarked for resource definition, while a further 40,000 metres will focus on exploration and extensions of known mineralization.

A feasibility study is also underway, with publication targeted for the second half of 2027.

Aya is additionally assessing the possibility of increasing processing capacity from 8,000 to 10,000 tonnes per day during the third and fourth years of operation. Such an expansion would depend on further resource growth resulting from ongoing drilling.

Preliminary assessment leaves development risks

Despite the stronger financial indicators, the updated figures remain part of a preliminary economic assessment and should not be interpreted as a final investment decision.

The study incorporates inferred mineral resources, which cannot be treated as mineral reserves and whose eventual conversion is not guaranteed.

Consequently, the projected revenues, cash flows and economic returns remain subject to further technical work, resource development, permitting, financing and other factors that could affect the project's eventual design and economics.

For Aya Gold & Silver, the next milestones will therefore include additional drilling, resource updates and the completion of the feasibility study. The results of that work will determine how closely the project's future development matches the ambitious economic scenario outlined in the latest assessment.