Analysts warn of oil rationing in weeks amid supply crisis
Two months into the largest oil supply disruption on record, the global energy crisis escalates as U.S.-Israel-Iran war effects deepen. Crude prices hold above $100 per barrel while strategic reserves deplete fast. Governments brace for forced demand rationing as fuel stocks melt away.
The International Energy Agency labels the Strait of Hormuz near-closure—the route for 20% of world oil—the biggest supply break in market history. March output fell over 10 million barrels per day, per the agency's April report, reaching 13 million by late April. Eric Nuttall of Ninepoint Partners warned on BNN Bloomberg that rationing looms in weeks as prices climb. IEA analysts predict demand destruction from shortages and hikes, marking the first global oil demand drop since the pandemic.
A coordinated IEA release of 400 million barrels—including 172 million from U.S. strategic reserves—offers brief relief, covering just 20 days of lost Hormuz flows. Observed global oil stocks plunged 85 million barrels in March alone. Asian Development Bank cut 2026 growth forecasts for developing Asia-Pacific to 4.7% from 5.1%, citing energy shocks that pit growth against inflation at 5.2%. ASEAN economic ministers declared Middle East tensions a growing threat to regional growth and pledged no essential goods export bans plus fuel-sharing mechanisms.
Rationing spreads worldwide, unseen since 1970s embargoes. The Philippines declared national energy emergency, Indonesia limits fuel to 50 liters per vehicle daily, Sri Lanka made Wednesday a fuel-saving holiday, and Slovenia became the first EU state with fuel rationing. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Ethiopia adopt four-day weeks, school closures, or public spending cuts. The EU energy commissioner said bloc-wide fuel rationing remains an option. Bank of America sees $100 oil through 2026 in its base case as cease-fire talks stall and Hormuz shipping trickles.
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