Daily Press Review - July 9, 2024

Le Figaro: Legislative Elections: Five Scenarios and an Elusive Majority

On Sunday night, the NFP defied expectations by winning 184 seats, surpassing the presidential camp and the National Rally along with its "Ciottists" allies. While this result does not give them an absolute majority, it is enough to claim the position of Prime Minister. The four parties in the alliance have promised to propose a candidate for the Prime Minister's post by the end of the week. However, a minority government may face frequent motions of censure, threatening its stability.

In search of partners, the united left could turn to the Macronists. With 166 seats, the presidential camp is the second political force in the Assembly, making it difficult to bypass for an absolute majority. However, a pact seems unlikely: the Macronists refuse to collaborate with the Insoumis, while the NFP rejects the idea of a government expanded to include Renaissance and its allies. A coalition without LFI would be fragile and just below the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.

Despite his resignation, Gabriel Attal could extend his mandate until the end of the summer. Re-elected in Hauts-de-Seine, the acting Prime Minister is ready to stay "as long as duty requires." However, without sufficient support in the Assembly, a government composed solely of Macronists seems improbable. To remain in power and avoid motions of censure, the presidential camp must find partners.

Source: Le Figaro

Le Figaro: Ariane 6: A Crucial Inaugural Flight for Europe

After years of delays, Europe is preparing to launch its new space launcher, Ariane 6. This inaugural flight, scheduled for Tuesday, July 9, marks a major milestone for Europe's independent access to space.

The delay of Ariane 6 has had significant consequences for the European space industry. Europe has been without a launcher for a year, benefiting its competitors, such as SpaceX. Additionally, the abandonment of collaboration with Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine deprived Europe of Soyuz rockets.

Ariane 6 was designed to meet these challenges. It is more economical than its predecessor, Ariane 5, and offers greater flexibility with its modular design. Its reignitable engine allows multiple satellites to be placed in different orbits during a single flight.

The success of this inaugural flight is crucial for the future of the European space industry. Ariane 6 must enable Europe to regain its place in the space launch market and meet the growing needs of institutional and commercial clients.

Source: Le Figaro

Le Monde: Gabriel Attal Aims for a "New Political Offer" After the Legislative Elections

The Prime Minister was supposed to present his resignation to the head of state on Monday, but he could remain in office for a few more weeks. The presidential camp emerged weakened from the second round of legislative elections, but on Sunday, July 7, Gabriel Attal savored a personal victory.

The results defied all predictions. The National Rally (RN), once imagined capable of obtaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly, ended up in third place, behind the left-wing alliance of the New Popular Front (NFP) and the Macronist camp. Despite being decimated, the former majority saved a good number of its candidates, thanks to the hard work of Gabriel Attal and his team. "We were right to fight to the end!" said the head of government from the Ambassadors' lounge at the Élysée as he discovered the first results. Emmanuel Macron, at his side, nodded silently.

Unlike previous campaigns, the head of state was kept away from this battle, led with great energy by his 35-year-old Prime Minister. Gabriel Attal had candidly explained to Emmanuel Macron that he should appear as little as possible, believing that his popularity could counteract the unpopularity of the disliked president.

Source: Le Monde

Le Monde: NATO Faces European Division and Vulnerability

The troubles of Emmanuel Macron's and Olaf Scholz's political parties in the European elections, divergences with Americans regarding Russia, and the prospect of Donald Trump's return to the White House put EU countries in a weak position on the eve of the Alliance summit.

Following the second round of legislative elections, European leaders were expected to show unity to celebrate NATO's 75th anniversary in the midst of the Ukraine war. However, only Emmanuel Macron is expected to be absent on Tuesday, July 9, in Washington, delaying his arrival due to the political crisis in France caused by the dissolution of the National Assembly. The French president, who avoided cohabitation with the National Rally, is not expected to arrive until Wednesday for a two-day visit.

Macron's absence alongside Joe Biden on Tuesday evening illustrates the degree of weakening not only of France but also of Europeans within the Atlantic Alliance after thirty months of conflict in Ukraine. "Five years ago, a few weeks before NATO's 70th anniversary in London, Emmanuel Macron appeared very confident, diagnosing NATO's 'brain death.' Five years later, this is no longer the case," observes Samuel Faure, a defense specialist at Sciences Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye.

Source: Le Monde

Les Echos: Bercy Sanctioned by the Council of State on the "Airbnb" Tax Niche

In a decision rendered on Monday, the highest administrative court disavowed the government, which attempted not to apply the cut on the so-called "Airbnb" tax niche, erroneously maintained in the 2024 finance law. The tax administration's comments to that effect, contested by right-wing and left-wing elected officials as well as professional associations in the sector, were annulled. However, the Council of State's decision is not retroactive. Since the 2023 tax returns have already been sent, affected taxpayers will not be impacted this year.

The reprimand is severe. In a decision rendered on Monday, the Council of State reprimanded the tax administration. Bercy "incompletely added to the law" by publishing, on February 14, a comment in the "Official Public Finance Bulletin" (Bofip) aimed at not restricting the so-called "Airbnb" tax niche as provided for in the 2024 finance law.

According to the government, this cut was involuntary. A senatorial amendment had been kept "by mistake" in the text of the law, adopted without a vote after recourse to Article 49.3 of the Constitution. This amendment significantly modified the tax advantages related to seasonal furnished rentals (via platforms like Airbnb, Abritel, etc.). Until then, landlords could benefit from substantial lump-sum allowances. By opting for the "micro-BIC" regime, it was possible to deduct 50% of rental income, up to €77,700 (and even 71%, up to €188,700 for "classified" tourist accommodations). The Senate amendment reduced the allowance to 30%, up to €15,000 - exactly as for unfurnished rentals.

Source: Les Echos

Les Echos: The Automotive Industry Under Pressure to Meet CO2 Reduction Targets

European car manufacturers face a major challenge: reducing CO2 emissions from their sales in Europe by 15% by 2025. Failure to do so could result in heavy fines totaling up to €10 billion.

This situation is all the more urgent as sales of electric vehicles, essential for achieving CO2 reduction targets, stagnate in Europe. The end of purchase subsidies in some countries, such as Germany, is one of the main causes.

The penalty system set up by the CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) regulation is particularly dissuasive. For each gram of CO2 emitted in excess of the set targets, manufacturers will have to pay a fine of €95. This amount is then multiplied by the number of vehicles sold.

Among the most exposed manufacturers is Volkswagen. The German giant, which must achieve 24% electric vehicle sales next year compared to 15% in 2023, risks a €4 billion fine, equivalent to 19% of its pre-interest and tax earnings.

Source: Les Echos

Le Nouvel Économiste: Mobile Phones in Schools: A Heated Debate in the United States

Between class disruptions and student safety, the issue of mobile phone use in American schools is the subject of intense debate.

Faced with the distractions and risks of cyberbullying associated with mobile phones, some schools, such as Alice Deal Middle School in Washington, have taken drastic measures: a total ban on devices throughout the school day. Students must store their phones in locked pouches during classes and can only retrieve them at the end of the day.

However, this strict measure is not unanimous. Students find ways to circumvent the system, while some parents and teachers believe that mobile phones can be useful in emergencies or to stay in touch with children.

The influence of social media and smartphones on adolescent mental health is at the heart of the discussions. Some experts, like Jonathan Haidt in his book "The Anxious Generation," warn against the risks of anxiety, depression, and self-harm linked to excessive screen use. Other researchers nuance these claims, pointing out that the relationship between phones and mental disorders is not so direct and that other factors come into play.

Source: Le Nouvel Économiste

Le Nouvel Économiste: Artificial Intelligence: A Boon for the Climate or a New Threat?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is often presented as a solution to humanity's major challenges, including climate change. Its potential to optimize power grids, design more energy-efficient vehicles, or monitor plastic pollution is undeniable. However, the infrastructure required to run these computation-intensive technologies poses a significant environmental problem.

In 2020, Microsoft committed to becoming a carbon-neutral company by 2030 and offsetting all its historical emissions by 2050. An ambitious commitment that contrasts with reality: the company's emissions have jumped by 29%

 in one year. Despite advances in renewable energy, the energy consumption of data centers and the production of electronic components remain major sources of greenhouse gas emissions.

Source: Le Nouvel Économiste