Return of the nuclear specter: between threats, deployments, and silences
Geopolitical tensions between major powers are rising alarmingly, accompanied by renewed emphasis on nuclear deterrence. In this climate of growing rivalry, The Washington Post published a detailed report on the current state of the world’s nuclear arsenals, their geographic distribution, and the deep strategic changes they reveal. The analysis highlights a gradual but troubling return to nuclear confrontation, breaking with disarmament efforts begun after the Cold War.
According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), only nine countries officially possess nuclear weapons. The United States and Russia dominate this category, holding about 90% of all nuclear warheads worldwide, with nearly 12,241 warheads at the start of 2025.
Other nuclear powers include China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel, the latter never officially confirming its arsenal but estimated to have about 90 warheads.
Around 9,600 of these warheads are considered active military assets, with nearly 3,900 deployed on strategic launch platforms. This underscores the continuing importance of nuclear weapons in modern military doctrine. However, opacity about these arsenals grows, as most nuclear states—except the United States, the United Kingdom, and France—are increasingly discreet about their stockpiles.
The report also notes that six NATO members currently host American nuclear weapons on their soil—Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey—with about 100 warheads stored under exclusive U.S. control, according to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).
Russia is also active in nuclear signaling, with President Vladimir Putin announcing plans to deploy tactical nuclear warheads in Belarus, a move confirmed by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Yet, as of mid-2025, no concrete evidence of this deployment has emerged.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump added to the tension by revealing he deployed two nuclear submarines to undisclosed locations in response to perceived “indirect threats” from Russian officials, warning of the risks of uncontrolled nuclear confrontation.
While the post-Cold War era saw global nuclear arms reductions, current signals indicate the opposite trend. Increasingly, states reaffirm nuclear weapons as central to their national security. The concept of nuclear deterrence—long the cornerstone of global balance—appears to be losing its effectiveness. Recent missile attacks against Israel were not deterred by its arsenal, nor did Russian nuclear threats stop Western military support to Ukraine.
Experts warn this dynamic can lead to a vicious cycle where efforts to strengthen defense prompt rivals to escalate their arsenals, potentially stabilizing nuclear arms at dangerously high levels or causing new increases. Such a development could drag the world into an era of heightened instability, mistrust, and prolonged tensions.
