Oil prices head for first weekly close above $100 since May

14:25

By: Azzat Manal

Oil prices head for first weekly close above $100 since May

Oil prices are on track to end the week above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, as escalating attacks and growing security risks across the Middle East fuel concerns over prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies.

Despite a decline in prices during Friday’s trading session, both major international benchmarks remained firmly above the $100 threshold. October West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell about 1.5% to around $101 a barrel, while November Brent contracts declined by roughly 1.8% to about $106 a barrel.

On a weekly basis, however, crude prices have gained around 13%, marking their strongest increase since the week ending in mid-July. The sharp rise reflects mounting concerns that the conflict in the region could increasingly affect oil production, exports and maritime transport.

Shipping activity through key waterways has already been affected by the deteriorating security situation. Reports that Houthi forces had taken control of Yemen’s strategic Mokha port added another layer of uncertainty for commercial shipping in the Red Sea, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also weakened amid attacks targeting oil tankers and heightened military tensions.

The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important to global energy markets because a significant share of internationally traded oil passes through the narrow waterway. Any sustained disruption could therefore have consequences well beyond the Middle East, increasing transportation costs and putting additional pressure on fuel prices in major economies.

Analysts have increasingly warned that the latest attacks represent a broader escalation rather than an isolated confrontation. Strikes launched from Yemen against Saudi energy infrastructure have raised concerns that the security risks could spread across several countries and threaten critical oil and shipping infrastructure.

The market is also closely watching developments involving Iran and the United States. US President Donald Trump has warned that Washington could target areas near Peak Mountain in Iran, close to the Natanz uranium-enrichment facility, which has previously suffered major damage. Trump has also suggested that the wider conflict could continue until after the November 2026 midterm elections.

Such statements have added another layer of uncertainty for energy traders, who are already assessing the possibility of further attacks on production facilities, pipelines, ports and tanker routes.

The oil market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions because supply chains are interconnected and spare production capacity cannot always compensate immediately for losses from major exporting regions. Even the threat of prolonged disruption can push prices higher as traders and consumers seek to protect against potential shortages.

The latest surge also comes at a time when higher energy prices are already creating inflationary pressure in several economies. More expensive crude can raise the cost of gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel and industrial production, while higher transportation expenses can eventually affect food and consumer goods.

For oil-importing countries, a sustained period of crude prices above $100 could therefore complicate efforts by central banks to control inflation. At the same time, oil-producing economies could benefit from increased revenues, although prolonged instability could also damage infrastructure and disrupt exports.

Whether prices remain above the $100 mark will depend largely on the evolution of the conflict, the security of major shipping routes and the ability of producers to maintain uninterrupted supplies. Traders are expected to remain highly attentive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and major energy facilities across the region.

For now, the prospect of oil closing the week above $100 highlights how quickly geopolitical tensions can reshape global energy markets. If disruptions persist or expand, crude prices could remain under significant upward pressure in the weeks ahead.