Navigating the Middle Path Prabowo’s Foreign Policy Strategy

When Prabowo Subianto was sworn in as Indonesia’s eighth president in October, one of the immediate questions surrounding his leadership was how his approach to foreign policy would shape the region’s security landscape, especially amid growing tensions between China and the United States. Analysts suggest that Prabowo's stance will likely be a departure from the policies of his predecessor, Joko Widodo, who focused on economic growth, attracting foreign investment, and building export markets. In contrast, Prabowo’s leadership is expected to place greater emphasis on military relations and defense strategies in an increasingly competitive Asia-Pacific region.

One notable shift is Prabowo’s more direct involvement in foreign policy, a contrast to Jokowi’s tendency to delegate such matters. Through his role as Indonesia’s defense minister, Prabowo has signaled a strategic reorientation that aims to balance the influence of both China and the United States. Early signs suggest Indonesia could strengthen its ties with China, including the resumption of military exercises, while simultaneously exploring deeper defense cooperation with the United States. 

Observers will be watching to see if Indonesia’s military engagements with China grow in intensity to rival those with the United States. The decision to deepen relations with both global powers while remaining neutral in the escalating US-China rivalry highlights Prabowo's commitment to navigating a careful middle path. 

Strategic Diplomacy and Regional Security

Prabowo’s choice of state visits early in his presidency further underscores his strategic approach. His travels included stops in Australia, Russia, China, the United States, and the United Kingdom, indicating a desire to engage with major global powers and assert Indonesia’s independent position. While some analysts raised concerns over the order of these visits, it is likely that logistical and timing factors played a role, as the US was in the midst of a presidential election during the period.

Zachary Abuza, an expert on Southeast Asian politics, notes that while these visits may have raised alarm bells regarding Prabowo's foreign policy direction, they were not necessarily indicative of a shift toward any specific power bloc. Instead, they reflect Prabowo’s broader vision of enhancing Indonesia’s role within regional organizations like ASEAN, which could be crucial in managing the ongoing rivalry between Beijing and Washington. 

The strengthening of ASEAN under Prabowo’s leadership is seen as a priority, as Indonesia’s size and strategic position can bolster the bloc's effectiveness in regional matters. Analysts also anticipate a diversification of Indonesia’s security partnerships, extending beyond the traditional US-China dynamic to include countries such as Australia, India, South Korea, and Vietnam. This broader engagement with other Indo-Pacific powers is seen as crucial for mitigating the impact of the US-China rivalry.

Prabowo’s Military Background and Diplomatic Balance

Prabowo's background as a former special forces commander plays a significant role in shaping his foreign policy priorities. His military career, which began in the early 1970s, has been marred by allegations of human rights abuses, particularly in East Timor, West Papua, and during Indonesia’s 1998 race riots. Despite these controversies, which led to travel bans from Western nations, Prabowo has managed to rebuild his international relationships, particularly since his appointment as defense minister in 2020. 

His leadership in the defense sector and ability to engage with a range of international actors suggest that Indonesia under Prabowo will not align itself exclusively with any major power bloc. Instead, Indonesia will seek to maintain its "bebas-aktif" or “free and active” foreign policy, which allows the country to work with a variety of partners without being tied to one side. 

The relationship between Indonesia and Australia will be closely scrutinized, particularly as Australia’s involvement in the AUKUS defense pact with the US and the UK has strengthened its alignment with the West. Prabowo’s attempts to balance Indonesia’s relationships with both China and the West may create tensions, especially as Australia adjusts to its role within the evolving security dynamics of the region.

• As Prabowo Subianto navigates his presidency, Indonesia is poised to play a more active role in regional security and diplomacy. While his policies may diverge from those of his predecessor, they reflect a nuanced approach aimed at securing Indonesia's interests without aligning too closely with any single power. In a region marked by rising tensions between China and the United States, Prabowo's middle path offers a unique strategy that could have lasting implications for Indonesia's foreign relations and its role in the broader Indo-Pacific.