Morocco cuts new HIV infections by 72.4% as epidemic patterns shift

13:45

Morocco has recorded a substantial decline in new HIV infections over the past twelve years, but the latest epidemiological research points to a changing pattern of transmission and persistent regional disparities.

A study published in The Lancet HIV estimates that Morocco recorded approximately 874 new HIV infections in 2025, compared with 3,163 in 2013. That represents a 72.4% reduction over the period. The estimated number stood at 3,446 in 2010.

The figures refer to estimated new infections rather than the number of people who received an HIV diagnosis during a particular year. Some people who acquire the virus may only discover their status months or years later.

A changing national epidemic

The study draws on Moroccan data collected between 2010 and 2023 and examines the national situation alongside six regions: Casablanca-Settat, Fès-Meknès, Marrakech-Safi, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, Souss-Massa and Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceïma.

While the overall number of new infections has fallen sharply, transmission is increasingly concentrated among specific population groups identified by researchers as key populations and their partners.

In 2025, these groups were estimated to account for 80.2% of new HIV infections in Morocco. Networks involving men who have sex with men accounted for an estimated 42.3%, while networks associated with heterosexual sex work represented 37%. People who inject drugs accounted for approximately 0.9%.

The estimated annual incidence was highest among networks involving men who have sex with men, at 0.80%.

The figures point to a shift in the structure of the epidemic. Networks associated with heterosexual sex work, which had previously represented the largest share, are no longer the leading contributor in the study's 2025 estimates.

Women remain significantly exposed to transmission

Women are estimated to represent 37.4% of new HIV infections in Morocco in 2025. According to the study, approximately three-quarters of these infections were acquired from a husband who was potentially able to transmit the virus.

The finding places particular emphasis on HIV testing within couples. HIV testing is not systematically required before marriage in Morocco, meaning that an undiagnosed infection can remain unknown when a couple begins married life.

With around 240,000 marriages registered annually, researchers highlight the importance of strengthening opportunities for testing and prevention within couples and other settings where undiagnosed infections may contribute to transmission.

Regional differences are becoming more pronounced

The national picture also masks considerable geographical variation.

The estimated share of new infections attributed to networks involving men who have sex with men ranges from 30.1% in Marrakech-Safi to 80.8% in Fès-Meknès.

Such differences illustrate how the epidemic does not evolve uniformly across Morocco. Prevention strategies therefore face a challenge of adapting to distinct regional patterns rather than relying solely on nationwide averages.

The researchers describe this development as increasing regional heterogeneity in HIV transmission.

Treatment progress supports the decline

The reduction in new infections has occurred alongside improvements in HIV testing, access to antiretroviral therapy and targeted prevention measures.

The UNAIDS 95-95-95 framework calls for 95% of people living with HIV to know their status, 95% of those diagnosed to receive treatment, and 95% of those receiving treatment to achieve viral suppression.

Morocco has reached the second and third targets, according to the study. An estimated 95.2% of diagnosed people were receiving antiretroviral treatment, while 95% of those on treatment had achieved viral suppression.

The first target remains unmet, however. A proportion of people living with HIV are therefore still unaware of their infection, leaving diagnosis as an important area for further progress.

Prevention could bring infections down further

The study's modelling suggests that closing the remaining gaps in the 95-95-95 cascade could reduce HIV incidence by an additional 52.8%.

Prevention measures could also have a significant effect. The researchers estimate that a 50% increase in condom use could prevent around 39.8% of new infections.

The study also examines the potential impact of expanding access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), a preventive treatment for HIV-negative people who face an elevated risk of infection.

PrEP is already available in Morocco through targeted prevention services, including sexual and reproductive health clinics operated by the Association de Lutte Contre le Sida (ALCS). According to the modelling, broader access could contribute to further reductions in transmission, although the effect would depend on the number of people reached and their ability to maintain treatment.

From a national decline to targeted prevention

Morocco's estimated 72.4% fall in new HIV infections since 2013 marks a major change in the country's epidemiological landscape. At the same time, the study indicates that the remaining transmission is increasingly concentrated in particular population groups and varies substantially between regions.

The challenge ahead is therefore not limited to maintaining the downward national trend. Expanding testing, sustaining treatment outcomes and adapting prevention programmes to regional and population-specific patterns could determine how far Morocco can reduce HIV transmission in the coming years.