Iran economist warns inflation could exceed 60% as poverty deepens

Sunday 02 November 2025 - 10:00

By: Sahili Aya

Iran economist warns inflation could exceed 60% as poverty deepens

A senior Iranian economist has warned that inflation could surpass 60% by March 2026, as the country faces an intensifying economic crisis driven by sanctions, mismanagement, and soaring consumer prices.

Morteza Afghah, a professor of economics at Ahvaz University, told Khabar Online that Iran is on the brink of severe stagflation — a combination of high inflation and stagnant growth — if the Pezeshkian administration fails to stabilize the economy.

Official figures show year-on-year inflation nearing 50%, with food prices rising even faster. Analysts say the government’s inability to curb price surges has pushed millions of families below the poverty line, widening inequality across the country.

Afghah blamed the crisis on “years of right-wing economic policies” and warned that hundreds of thousands of Iranians cannot afford basic nutrition. He urged the government to cut unnecessary expenditures and reform the tax system, shifting the burden to wealthier citizens instead of low-income households.

According to recent data, around 36% of Iranians now live in poverty, up from 30% in previous years. Lawmaker Rahmatollah Norouzi stated that even workers earning 450 million rials (about $400) struggle to meet living costs if they pay rent.

The minimum monthly wage stands at less than 110 million rials, rising to 150 million with benefits — still far below the 230 million rials considered necessary for basic survival.

The Health Ministry estimates that poor nutrition contributes to 35% of annual deaths, with thousands dying each year from vitamin and nutrient deficiencies.

Experts warn that renewed UN sanctions and a possible fuel price increase could worsen the situation, further eroding household purchasing power and deepening Iran’s social crisis.