Eritrea-Ethiopia: Asmara Appeals to the UN Amidst Risk of New Military Escalation

Sunday 11 - 07:49

Tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia have reached a new diplomatic threshold. Asmara has asked the United Nations Security Council to condemn statements from Addis Ababa, which it views as a threat of war, and to adopt deterrent measures to prevent further escalation of the conflict.

In a letter addressed to the UN body, Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh warned of the consequences of a confrontation between the two countries. According to him, such a development would pose serious risks to the populations of both states and could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa.

This initiative comes after accusations from the Ethiopian government, which blames its neighbor for deploying troops in the north of its territory. Addis Ababa believes these movements constitute an aggression that could justify a claim of legitimate defense.

The Security Council Requested to Prevent Confrontation

The Eritrean approach aims to elicit a strong response from the international community regarding the statements made by Ethiopian authorities. Asmara specifically asks the Security Council to condemn what it describes as a declaration of war and to take measures to deter any military escalation.

However, both governments defend opposing versions of events. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of supporting armed groups active in the north of the country, while Eritrea denounces its neighbor's intentions and fears a challenge to its sovereignty.

The reported presence of Eritrean soldiers in the Tigray region heightens concerns. According to a foreign security source cited in the reports, between 5,000 and 8,000 Eritrean military personnel are believed to be in this northern region of Ethiopia.

Drone strikes carried out by Ethiopian federal forces reportedly targeted positions of these soldiers near Adigrat, about forty kilometers from the Eritrean border. The concerned forces are said to have subsequently retreated northward. Ethiopian authorities had not responded to requests from Agence France-Presse at the time of publication.

A Historical Rivalry Revived by Territorial Issues

Relations between the two neighbors remain marked by a history of conflict. Gaining independence in 1993 after decades of armed struggle, Eritrea faced Ethiopia between 1998 and 2000 in a war primarily related to territorial disputes. This conflict resulted in tens of thousands of deaths.

A rapprochement began in 2018, following the rise to power of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. However, this détente has not withstood strategic disagreements and mutual accusations of destabilization.

The issue of access to the sea is currently one of the main points of friction. Being landlocked since Eritrea's independence, Ethiopia seeks to secure sustainable maritime access. Eritrean authorities suspect their neighbor of coveting the port of Assab, located on the Red Sea coast.

This rivalry over maritime outlets adds to military tensions and disagreements on regional security, further complicating the prospects for calming the situation.

Tigray: A New Hotspot of Regional Tensions

The rising tensions between Asmara and Addis Ababa come as clashes have resumed in Tigray. Forces of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which long dominated the political landscape of this region, are once again clashing with the Ethiopian federal army.

This situation recalls the war that ravaged northern Ethiopia from 2020 to 2022. At that time, Ethiopian government forces had received military support from Eritrea against the TPLF. The conflict caused a major humanitarian catastrophe, with an estimated death toll of at least 600,000 according to figures cited in available reports.

The shifting alliances and resumption of hostilities illustrate the fragility of balances in this region. The presumed involvement of Eritrean forces in current events could broaden the scope of confrontation beyond internal clashes in Ethiopia.

A Crisis with Potential Regional Consequences

The breakdown of diplomatic relations between the two countries, announced after new accusations of hostility earlier this month, further reduces the possibilities for direct dialogue.

In this context, the appeal to the Security Council reflects Eritrea's desire to internationalize the dispute and obtain diplomatic pressure on Addis Ababa. However, this alone does not guarantee de-escalation on the ground.

The evolution of the situation will depend in part on military movements in Tigray, decisions by Ethiopian and Eritrean authorities, and the capacity of international actors to facilitate a resumption of dialogue.

Beyond their bilateral rivalry, both countries occupy a strategic position in the Horn of Africa, close to the Red Sea and one of the main corridors of global maritime trade. An open confrontation could thus exacerbate regional instability and have humanitarian and security repercussions far beyond their borders.