IMF raises Morocco’s growth forecast to 4.5% for 2026

14:15

By: Azzat Manal

IMF raises Morocco’s growth forecast to 4.5% for 2026

The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth outlook for Morocco, projecting that the country’s economy will expand by 4.5% in 2026 before recording growth of 4.2% in 2027. The updated estimates, published in the institution’s latest World Economic Outlook report, point to continued economic expansion despite challenges affecting employment and the external balance.

The report was released during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group, held from October 12 to 18 in Bangkok, Thailand. Its projections provide an overview of expected economic performance in Morocco and other regions amid an uncertain global environment.

Inflation in Morocco is forecast to remain relatively moderate, reaching 0.9% in 2026 before increasing to 1.4% in 2027. Such a pace would indicate limited overall price growth, although the effect on household budgets will also depend on changes in the prices of essential goods and services.

The IMF’s outlook also highlights pressure on Morocco’s external accounts. The current account deficit is expected to widen to 4.9% of gross domestic product in 2026 before narrowing to 4.1% in 2027. The balance reflects the difference between a country’s earnings from international transactions and its payments abroad, including trade in goods and services, income and transfers.

Employment remains another important challenge. The report projects Morocco’s unemployment rate at 12.2% in 2026, followed by a decline to 11.3% in 2027. Even with an anticipated improvement, unemployment is likely to remain a central concern for policymakers, particularly as the country seeks to create more opportunities for young people and new entrants to the labour market.

Morocco’s growth prospects come amid a mixed outlook for the wider Middle East and North Africa region. The IMF expects economic activity across the MENA region to contract by 2% in 2026 before rebounding by 7% in 2027. These projections reflect the region’s exposure to geopolitical tensions, energy-market developments and differences in economic conditions between individual countries.

At the global level, the Fund forecasts growth of 3.1% in 2026, rising to 3.4% in 2027. However, worldwide inflation is expected to interrupt its recent downward trend, increasing from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% the following year.

For Morocco, the projected expansion offers a potentially supportive backdrop for investment and economic activity. Nevertheless, headline growth figures alone do not determine how broadly its benefits will be felt. The impact on living standards will depend on job creation, household purchasing power, productivity and the ability of businesses to expand.

The IMF’s latest estimates therefore present a combination of growth opportunities and continuing vulnerabilities. Maintaining economic momentum while improving employment outcomes and managing external imbalances will remain important priorities as Morocco moves toward 2027.