Houthis emerge as a growing threat to Trump and Saudi Arabia

Tuesday 15 September 2026 - 21:15

The rapid rise of the Houthis has opened a new and potentially destabilizing chapter in the Middle East. By gaining control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait in just nine days, the Iran-aligned Yemeni movement has acquired a strategic position capable of disrupting one of the world's most important maritime routes.

Armed with drones and missiles, the Houthis have transformed themselves from a Yemeni insurgent force into a regional actor with the ability to influence international shipping. Their growing leverage comes as Iran continues to restrict maritime traffic around the Strait of Hormuz, creating the possibility of pressure on two critical gateways for global trade.

A strategic dilemma for Washington

The development presents a difficult choice for US President Donald Trump. Any prolonged disruption in the Red Sea could push energy prices higher, adding pressure to inflation at a politically sensitive moment, with the US midterm elections approaching.

Washington could respond militarily against the Houthis, an option strongly advocated by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. But opening another front in the region would carry significant political and economic risks.

Trump has so far adopted a more cautious tone. On September 12, he said the Houthis had contacted the United States and were allowing most vessels to pass, suggesting that the immediate threat to maritime traffic could be contained.

Yet doubts remain over whether such assurances can be trusted.

Saudi Arabia faces a new energy vulnerability

The stakes are particularly high for Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter. Riyadh has already faced difficulties moving crude through the Persian Gulf because of Iranian pressure and had sought to rely more heavily on its pipeline network to transport oil toward Yanbu on the Red Sea.

That alternative now faces a major security challenge.

If tankers cannot safely use the Red Sea route, Saudi exports bound for Asian markets could face substantial delays. Vessels would have to travel through the Suez Canal and around Africa to avoid areas considered vulnerable to attack, adding roughly a month to the journey.

Higher fuel, insurance and transportation costs would ultimately feed into the price of crude, putting additional pressure on global energy markets.

Concerns over the Houthis' long-term intentions

The movement's past record is also fueling skepticism in Western capitals. Maged al-Madhaji, director of the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies in Aden, pointed to the 2018 ceasefire agreement reached in Stockholm between the Houthis and Yemen's internationally recognized government.

According to al-Madhaji, the agreement failed to prevent further attacks and did not produce lasting restraint from the rebel movement. He argues that the Houthis could once again seek to reassure Western governments before using control over maritime routes as a bargaining tool.

The credibility of any temporary commitment to keep shipping lanes open is therefore likely to remain under close scrutiny.

Oil markets already reacting

The economic consequences are becoming visible. On September 14, Brent crude climbed to $108 a barrel, its highest level since May.

The move illustrates how quickly geopolitical risks in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf can translate into higher energy costs. A prolonged disruption would affect not only oil producers and shipping companies but also consumers and economies already sensitive to inflation.

For Trump, the challenge is therefore broader than the security of maritime routes. He must weigh the risks of military escalation against the possibility that inaction could allow Iran and the Houthis to gain even greater influence over two strategic waterways.

With the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb both exposed to disruption, the confrontation has become a direct test of Washington's ability to protect global trade without triggering a wider regional conflict.