Houthi strikes raise fears of major disruption to global oil routes

Monday 30 March 2026 - 17:00

By: Dakir Madiha

Houthi strikes raise fears of major disruption to global oil routes

Yemen’s Houthi forces launched their first direct strikes on Israel on Saturday, marking a new phase in the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The escalation has raised concerns that the Red Sea, now a critical alternative route for oil shipments, could become a major flashpoint.

Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group fired ballistic and cruise missiles at sensitive military sites in southern Israel. He stated the operation was coordinated with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel’s military reported that all incoming projectiles were intercepted and confirmed no casualties. The Houthis said they would continue attacks until what they describe as aggression across allied fronts ends.

The development adds pressure to global energy markets already strained by disruptions in key maritime corridors. Analysts warn that two vital oil transit routes now face simultaneous risk. Since early March, Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Saudi Arabia to reroute most of its crude exports through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. From there, shipments pass through the Bab el-Mandeb strait toward global markets.

JPMorgan analysts, led by global commodities strategist Natasha Kaneva, warned that Houthi capabilities pose a direct threat to Saudi export infrastructure and shipping traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb. The bank estimates that around five million barrels per day of Saudi diversion capacity through Yanbu are now exposed. This vulnerability could push oil prices up by as much as 20 dollars per barrel.

The analysts said that simultaneous exposure of two major energy corridors limits rerouting options and increases systemic risks across supply chains.

The Bab el-Mandeb strait, a narrow passage between Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea, handles roughly 10 percent of global oil and gas shipments. During the Red Sea crisis between 2023 and 2025, Houthi forces carried out more than 100 attacks on commercial vessels. These incidents forced shipping companies to divert routes and cut Red Sea traffic by more than half.

Ahmed Nagi of the International Crisis Group told the Associated Press that further escalation would extend beyond energy markets and destabilize maritime security more broadly. Analysts estimate that a simultaneous blockade of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb could disrupt about 22 percent of global oil supply and 30 percent of container shipping flows. Such a scenario would severely affect energy deliveries to Europe and Asia.

Oil markets have already reacted to the rising tensions. Brent crude surged and is on track for a record monthly gain after rising 4.2 percent on Friday, according to Reuters. For now, analysts say Houthi actions appear calibrated to support Iran’s strategic objectives without triggering a wider military response, but they warn that this balance remains fragile.