WTO raises global merchandise trade forecasts as AI investment fuels growth

Yesterday 15:56

By: Azzat Manal

WTO raises global merchandise trade forecasts as AI investment fuels growth

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has upgraded its forecasts for global merchandise trade, citing stronger-than-expected investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and the ability of international supply chains to adapt to disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The revised outlook suggests that global goods trade has maintained its momentum despite geopolitical tensions, energy market uncertainty and logistical challenges.

The organization now expects the volume of global merchandise trade to increase by 3.9% in 2026, more than double its previous forecast of 1.9% issued in March. Growth is projected to reach 4.1% in 2027, compared with the earlier estimate of 2.6%. The WTO also anticipates global gross domestic product growth of 2.6% this year and 2.9% next year.

Robert Staiger, the WTO’s chief economist, said the scale of investment in AI had exceeded expectations. He also noted that the economic impact of the Middle East conflict on trade had been less severe than initially anticipated. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala described the revised projections as evidence of the international trading system’s resilience, emphasizing the importance of cooperation and predictable, rules-based trade in maintaining the flow of essential goods.

According to the WTO, global merchandise trade expanded by 3.5% during the first half of 2026, outperforming the organization’s earlier expectations. Supply chains have adjusted to disruptions affecting energy supplies, fertilizer markets and transportation routes. The organization’s figures indicate that global crude oil exports declined by around 6%, while liquefied natural gas exports fell by approximately 1%. Meanwhile, international container traffic increased by 3.9% over the first seven months of the year.

Investment in AI infrastructure has emerged as a major driver of this expansion. Demand for semiconductors, servers and other equipment required to develop and operate AI systems has risen sharply as technology companies and other businesses invest in computing capacity. The WTO reported that trade in these goods surged by 67% year on year during the first six months of 2026, accounting for 47% of the increase in global merchandise trade over the period.

Spending on AI infrastructure is expected to remain substantial. The WTO estimates that global investment in the sector could rise by at least 30% in 2026, with market projections pointing to a further increase of between 10% and 20% in capital expenditure in 2027. Such spending supports demand across several industries, including chip manufacturing, data-center equipment, electronics and related industrial components. However, the organization cautioned that any slowdown in AI investment could weaken trade growth.

The benefits of the global trade recovery are not being distributed evenly. Asia is expected to record the strongest growth in merchandise exports in 2026, at 9.9%. North America and Africa are each projected to achieve export growth of 5.7%, while South America’s exports are expected to increase by 3.4%. By contrast, European exports are forecast to edge down by 0.1%, while exports from the Middle East could contract by 17.2%, reflecting the region’s exposure to conflict-related disruptions and logistical pressures.

The WTO has stressed that resilience should not be confused with complete security. Although businesses have found ways to reroute shipments and adjust sourcing strategies, continued disruptions could still raise transportation costs, delay deliveries and put pressure on industries that depend on reliable supplies of energy and raw materials. Smaller economies may also struggle to benefit from the AI-driven expansion if they lack the infrastructure, investment or technological capacity needed to participate in increasingly digital supply chains.

The outlook for services trade has become more complicated. The WTO has lowered its forecast for growth in the volume of global services trade in 2026 to 3.3%, down from 4.8% previously. Growth is nevertheless expected to accelerate to 6.4% in 2027, above the earlier projection of 5.1%. Services trade grew by 14% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 before slowing to 10% in the second quarter, as conflict-related disruption affected transportation and international travel.

The revised forecasts highlight the growing influence of technological investment on the global economy. AI-related demand is currently helping offset some of the negative effects of geopolitical instability, but the durability of that support remains uncertain. For the WTO, sustaining trade growth will depend not only on continued investment in emerging technologies but also on the ability of governments and businesses to preserve reliable supply chains and manage risks in an increasingly interconnected world.