Global Population Decline: An Alarming Scenario Worries Researchers

Wednesday 01 July 2026 - 20:00

By: Azzat Manal

Global Population Decline: An Alarming Scenario Worries Researchers

Scientists are warning of a possible global population collapse in the coming decades. According to a recent study conducted by researchers at the University of Milan, the world's population could, in the worst-case scenario, fall to half its current level by 2064 due to multiple environmental, health, and economic crises.

With the world's population currently around 8.3 billion, researchers used mathematical models to assess the impact of a sharp decline in the Earth's "carrying capacity"—that is, the maximum number of humans the planet can sustainably support.

The study, published in the scientific journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, does not claim to predict the future precisely, but seeks to explore various extreme scenarios. In one scenario, the planet's capacity could fall to just two billion inhabitants due to major upheavals linked to climate change, pandemics, international conflicts, or the depletion of natural resources.

Researchers explain that they analyzed more than 12,000 years of demographic data to understand the major dynamics of human growth, from ancient societies to the modern population explosion.

Even if current trends remain relatively stable and show no immediate signs of collapse, scientists believe that rapid changes in environmental or health conditions could drastically alter global demographic trends.

The study also highlights the continued decline in fertility rates in several developed countries. The replacement rate is estimated at around 2.1 children per woman, while some countries now have significantly lower levels. This phenomenon fuels concerns about aging populations, labor shortages, and increasing pressure on social systems.

Several experts and analysts, including Elon Musk, consider demographic decline to be one of the greatest long-term challenges to global economic and civilizational stability.