Global catastrophe risk heightens: The Doomsday Clock moves to 89 seconds

Wednesday 29 January 2025 - 11:32

The Doomsday Clock has been moved forward by one second, now standing at 89 seconds before midnight, indicating an increased risk of global disaster. This shift marks the first change in three years, reflecting ongoing threats from nuclear weapons, climate change, bioweapons, pandemics, and disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence (AI).

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS), which manages the Doomsday Clock, cited insufficient progress in addressing existential risks. Daniel Holz, the chair of BAS’s Science and Security Board, expressed concern over the failure to make meaningful advances in mitigating these global threats. The clock’s new time is the closest it has been to midnight in 78 years.

The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of humanity’s proximity to catastrophic destruction caused by dangerous technologies. It serves as a metaphor, a logo, and a brand, widely recognized as a symbol of global risk. The closer the clock moves to midnight, the closer humanity is to potential global catastrophe, driven by factors such as political instability, weapons proliferation, technological advancements, climate change, and pandemics.

The clock's time is adjusted annually by a board of experts, including scientists, nuclear technology specialists, and climate scientists. The board evaluates current events and assesses the severity of global threats. Their conclusions determine the clock’s position for the year. BAS describes the process as similar to a doctor diagnosing a patient, where data and broader circumstances inform decisions on global risks.

In the clock’s history, it has only been moved back once, notably in 1991, when US President George HW Bush and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, reducing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. This led to a seven-second reversal, the farthest the clock has ever moved away from midnight, with the greatest distance being 17 minutes.

The Doomsday Clock was established in 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, founded by Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and Eugene Rabinowitch. Initially set at seven minutes to midnight, the clock was adjusted after the Soviet Union tested its first atomic bomb in 1949, moving it to three minutes. The clock’s closest proximity to midnight occurred in 1953 and 2018, when tensions between nuclear powers and the lack of action on climate change pushed it to two minutes.

The clock remains on display at the BAS offices at the University of Chicago.