Gains and Challenges: Kamala Harris’ Surge in Latino Support

Wednesday 14 August 2024 - 17:00

Vice President Kamala Harris has made notable strides in securing Latino voter support for the Democratic ticket. However, despite these gains, her current backing falls slightly short of the levels achieved by Joe Biden in 2020, according to a recent poll by Equis Research released on Wednesday.

With 80 days remaining until the election, Harris is reportedly "on track to counter a GOP surge" among Latino voters, as indicated in the poll memo. Equis Research, a Democratic polling firm specializing in Latino demographics, highlights that while Harris has made significant headway, a considerable portion of registered Latino voters—particularly new voters—remain undecided regarding their voting choices. This uncertainty could be pivotal in determining outcomes in key battleground states.

"Out of the gate, the Vice President has swiftly garnered support from a broad segment of disenchanted Hispanic voters, and she still has room to grow," the memo notes. "The actions of these last Latino voters could influence the final results in fiercely contested states."

The poll, conducted from July 22 to August 4, shows Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 19 percentage points—56% to 37%—among registered Hispanic voters in the seven most competitive states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

In comparison, a previous poll from May 16 to June 6 had shown Biden with a narrower lead of 5 points in these states, at 46% to 41%. This data was collected before the June 28 debate, which led to Biden stepping aside and Harris emerging as the Democratic nominee.

In the 2020 election, Biden secured 65% of the Latino vote compared to Trump's 32%, according to NBC News exit polls. Despite Trump's initial campaign rhetoric disparaging individuals of Mexican descent, he gradually made inroads with Latino voters starting from 2016. Recent polls suggested that Trump's influence among Latino voters could grow this year, potentially diminishing Biden’s previous advantage.

Harris has managed to energize Latino voters and increase the competitiveness of the race. The polling firm notes, “With Kamala Harris entering the race, we are seeing a return to historically normal levels of support. Compared to Biden, she has seen rebounds across Latino subgroups, especially among younger voters.”

Among respondents under 40, who made up about 44% of the poll, Harris’ support stands at 60%, a significant 17-point increase over Biden's 43%. She has also gained support from 59% of Latinas, a 9-point improvement over Biden’s early June numbers, and from 51% of Latino men, up from Biden's 41%.

Harris' support extends beyond liberal Latinos, where she has made the most significant gains—16 percentage points better than Biden. She is also performing better with moderate Latinos (12 points) and conservative Latinos (7 points). Notably, 65% of "double haters," who disapprove of both Biden and Trump, back Harris, while only 11% support Trump. Approximately 25% of voters remain undecided or are unlikely to vote.

The survey, involving 2,183 registered Latino voters, was conducted across 12 states, including battleground states. Of these, 1,242 respondents were from the seven competitive states. The margin of error for the 12-state survey is plus or minus 2.9%, while it is plus or minus 3.7% for the battleground states.

Harris' support levels vary by state. In Wisconsin, she matches 2020 support levels, but she is 5 points short in Nevada, where Biden had struggled. In Arizona, she needs to replicate Biden’s narrow 2020 victory margin but is currently 2 points behind.

Latino voters in these key states, who are not heavily engaged with daily election news, are likely to remain undecided until closer to the election. The share of undecided Latinos decreased with Harris' entry into the race. Approximately 15% of registered Latinos remain persuadable, including those who may switch parties or split their votes between different candidates.

Newly registered Latino voters show a preference for Harris over Trump by 51% to 35%, marking a 6-point improvement from Biden’s performance. Among Latinos who did not vote in 2020 but are registered this year, Harris has gained ground, now leading Trump by 2 points, a 20-point shift from the previous election.

A majority of Latinos who did not vote in 2020, including newly registered voters, indicate they are certain to vote this year, reflecting a 10-point increase from the prior survey. This leaves a considerable portion of the electorate as persuadable, with varying motivations and preferences influencing their final decisions.