Brazil, Egypt, and Singapore Among Potential Winners from Tariff Onslaught

Tuesday 08 April 2025 - 11:35

By: Zahouani Ilham

Brazil, Egypt, and Singapore Among Potential Winners from Tariff Onslaught

The recent imposition of sweeping tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through global markets, particularly affecting long-standing U.S. trading partners like the European Union, Japan, and South Korea. However, several countries, including Brazil, Egypt, Singapore, and Turkey, are positioning themselves as potential winners from the ongoing trade tensions, despite the looming risk of a tariff-induced recession.

Brazil, which faces a relatively low 10% tariff, stands to benefit from China’s retaliatory measures on U.S. agricultural exports. As a net importer of goods from the U.S., Brazil is one of the countries likely to capitalize on the trade war, particularly given its agricultural strength.

Countries with trade deficits with the U.S., such as Morocco, Egypt, and Singapore, may also find opportunities in this trade dispute. For example, Egypt, which has lower tariffs imposed compared to competitors like China, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, is well-positioned to attract investment in its textiles industry. The Egyptian market has already seen interest from companies looking to avoid higher tariffs imposed on other nations.

Similarly, Turkey, which faced earlier tariffs on its iron, steel, and aluminum exports, now finds itself in a more advantageous position as global competitors are burdened with higher tariffs. Turkey’s Trade Minister Omer Bolat has referred to the tariffs as the "best of the worst," acknowledging the country’s relatively lower rates.

Morocco, under its free trade agreement with the U.S., could also attract foreign investment, especially in industries seeking to export to the U.S. However, concerns about potential negative reactions from the U.S. government regarding Chinese investments in Morocco remain. The country’s aerospace and fertilizer industries could still face challenges as a result of the broader economic impact of the tariffs.

Kenya, while benefiting from a trade surplus with the U.S., may also see some positive effects from the tariffs, particularly in textiles. The country’s textile producers could gain a competitive advantage against those from countries facing higher tariffs.

Meanwhile, Singapore’s economy is suffering due to global market uncertainty, with the Straits Times Index experiencing its largest fall since 2008. While Singapore may attract investment flows as manufacturers seek to diversify, the country’s heavy reliance on trade means that it is unlikely to emerge as a clear "winner" from the trade war.

India, despite facing a 26% tariff, is exploring opportunities in sectors like textiles, apparel, and footwear as it looks to gain market share from its regional rivals. India is also eyeing a larger share of iPhone manufacturing, with companies shifting production out of China due to the trade tensions.

In conclusion, while countries like Brazil, Egypt, and Turkey may find opportunities in the current trade environment, the overall economic impact of the tariffs remains uncertain, and the risk of a global recession could limit any long-term gains.