Bitcoin tops $71,000, outperforming gold and stocks since Iran conflict began

Wednesday 25 March 2026 - 13:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Bitcoin tops $71,000, outperforming gold and stocks since Iran conflict began

Bitcoin has emerged as an unexpected winner amid the turmoil triggered by the United States-Iran conflict, outperforming both gold and the S&P 500 since hostilities began on February 28, according to an analysis by River Financial, a Bitcoin-focused financial services platform. Data show Bitcoin has gained approximately 12% since the conflict started, while gold has fallen 16% and the S&P 500 has retreated 4%.

The divergence challenges long-held assumptions about which assets investors gravitate toward during geopolitical crises and has prompted a reassessment of Bitcoin's role in diversified portfolios.

The cryptocurrency's advance was not without turbulence. Bitcoin initially dropped nearly 8% following the announcement of the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as investors reflexively sold risk assets. It quickly reversed course, however, rebounding roughly 9% the following Monday as markets reassessed the conflict's scope.

By mid-March, Bitcoin had climbed past $74,000, prompting Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani to observe that Bitcoin and crypto markets had shown resilience in the face of Middle East turbulence, outpacing both gold and equity indices. The rally came despite the cryptocurrency having already suffered a steep decline from its October record above $126,000.

Last week tested that resilience. President Donald Trump's threat to strike Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz did not reopen sent Bitcoin below $70,000 on Friday. By Tuesday, however, signs of potential de-escalation, including the postponement of drone strikes, helped push it back above $71,000.

Analysts point to several factors behind Bitcoin's outperformance. Simeon Hyman of ProShares told CNBC that the diversification argument is particularly relevant in the current climate, noting Bitcoin's gains while equities retreated. Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, highlighted a structural advantage for cryptocurrencies: when the Iran conflict intensified over the weekend, native crypto markets were the only venue open for trading global risk.

Institutional demand has reinforced the trend. Strategy Inc. announced the acquisition of 1,031 bitcoins on March 24, bringing its total holdings to 762,099 BTC. Inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds remained steady, with $1.4 billion in monthly net inflows recorded.

Not everyone is persuaded. One analyst pointed out on CNBC that Bitcoin was priced at $125,000 just five months ago, meaning it has fallen more than 50% since the start of the conflict. Experts also caution that a prolonged war could weigh heavily on prices. Georgii Verbitskii, founder of crypto trading platform TYMIO, told DL News that an extended Middle East conflict would generally be negative for Bitcoin, as any disruption to global trade routes raises uncertainty across financial markets.

River Financial's historical analysis nonetheless identifies a pattern: Bitcoin has outperformed gold and the S&P 500 in the 60 days following the COVID-19 outbreak, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the 2023 U.S. regional banking crisis. Whether the current conflict adds another data point to that trend may depend on how long the fighting continues.