Tesla gains fade amid delivery worries despite Europe rebound

Friday 27 March 2026 - 11:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Tesla gains fade amid delivery worries despite Europe rebound

Tesla shares rose 0.8% Wednesday to close at $385.95 after European registration data showed positive growth for the first time in over a year, only to shed those gains Thursday with a 1.4% drop to $380.66 as analysts cut 2026 delivery forecasts. ACEA data revealed February registrations up 11.8% year-over-year in the EU, UK and EFTA countries, snapping a 13-month decline streak. The uptick reflects tug-of-war between European demand recovery and darkening global outlook.

Tesla registered 17,664 vehicles in February, nearly matching BYD's 17,954 that more than doubled year-over-year. France led with 55% growth, followed by Spain at 74% and Germany at 59%; the UK fell 37% and Netherlands 45%. Gains start from low base: Q1 2025 plunged 37%, and year-to-date February trails 2023 by 44% when Model Y topped continent sales.

Iran conflict boosts tailwinds via fuel costs. EU gasoline prices climbed 12% from late February to mid-March; used EV sales surge as buyers shun combustion engines. U.S. gas nears $4 per gallon, with 20% rise in EV search interest per CarEdge.

Analysts slashed 2026 delivery growth forecasts over 50% to 3.8% from January's 8.2%, per Visible Alpha data. Morningstar's Seth Goldstein now sees near-5% global drop, citing weakness in two of Tesla's top three markets signaling third straight annual decline. Wall Street expects negative $5.2 billion free cash flow this year amid doubled capex over $20 billion.

Near-term catalysts include Dutch RDW's April 10 decision on Tesla's Full Self-Driving software—potential first EU regulatory nod, paving summer rollout via mutual recognition. Elon Musk announced weekend that Tesla and SpaceX will build $20 billion "Terafab" dual-chip factories near Austin for Tesla vehicles, Optimus robots and AI chips. "Either we build Terafab or we won't have the chips," Musk said in Saturday X livestream.