Silver rises above $90 as tariffs and Middle East tensions trigger safe-haven demand
Silver prices climbed sharply on Friday, surpassing $90 per troy ounce as growing trade uncertainty in the United States and escalating Middle East tensions ignited a wave of safe-haven buying. The rally also reflected tightening physical supplies, amplifying the white metal’s role as both a hedge against risk and a critical industrial commodity. The surge positions silver for a second consecutive weekly gain after recovering from recent losses earlier in February.
In India, silver futures for March delivery traded 3.17% higher at Rs 2,67,900 per kilogram on the Multi Commodity Exchange, according to provisional data. On the Comex market, U.S. futures advanced over 2% to $90.11 per ounce, while spot silver hovered around $89.64 during early trading. Prices briefly touched a three-week high of $91.30 before partial profit-taking reduced gains.
The rebound followed fresh market instability triggered by the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan, ruling that tariff-setting powers rest with Congress. The administration’s immediate response a 10% global tariff that could increase to 15% on specific countries added to market volatility and investor anxiety. Analysts from JPMorgan Private Bank said the combination of new tariffs and regional risks “points to renewed upside momentum.” Metals trader Tai Wong told Reuters that the administration’s legal maneuvers “will inject uncertainty,” supporting safe-haven flows.
Geopolitical uncertainty deepened after the latest round of indirect nuclear talks between the United States and Iran in Geneva ended without a breakthrough. Oman’s mediator described “significant progress,” yet both sides remained apart on key terms. Amid a growing U.S. military presence in the region, President Trump warned that “really bad things” could occur if Iran did not comply within days, pushing investors further toward metals and oil markets.
Beyond short-term disruptions, the rally rests on a persistent structural deficit in silver supply. The Silver Institute projects a 67-million-ounce shortage for 2026, marking the sixth consecutive annual deficit and bringing cumulative shortages since 2021 to more than 800 million ounces nearly one year’s global mine output. Exchange inventories have plunged toward historical lows, with COMEX registered stocks below 100 million ounces. China’s new export licensing rules for refined silver have further limited supply to Western buyers. The gold-to-silver ratio tightened to about 57, reflecting silver’s outperformance.
Silver’s dual nature as both a store of value and an essential component in solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI-driven technologies continues to shape its volatile market behavior. JPMorgan estimates an average price of $81 per ounce for 2026 but cautions that sustained highs may prompt industrial substitution. With trade policy turbulence unresolved and Middle East diplomacy on edge, silver’s upward trajectory appears firmly supported in the near term.
