US LNG exporters gain windfall as Iran conflict disrupts global gas supply

Tuesday 10 March 2026 - 15:20

By: Dakir Madiha

US LNG exporters gain windfall as Iran conflict disrupts global gas supply

Western energy companies not reliant on Persian Gulf supplies are emerging as the main financial winners as the United States and Israel’s war with Iran enters its second week, with American liquefied natural gas exporters positioned for what analysts describe as one of the largest commodity windfalls since the early 2000s.

The surge follows a sudden disruption in global LNG supply after Iranian drone strikes forced the shutdown of Qatar’s Ras Laffan facilities. The interruption removed roughly 20 percent of global LNG supply from the market and sent European gas prices more than 40 percent higher in a single trading session.

Analysts say the supply shock has sharply boosted the market power of U.S. exporters. Seb Kennedy, an energy analyst behind the Energy Flux newsletter, estimated that excess profits from American LNG shipments currently reach about $870 million per week and continue to rise.

If Qatari supply remains offline through the summer, Kennedy said the figure could climb to $20 billion in monthly profits. Over a full year, cumulative excess earnings could reach as much as $170 billion, surpassing the extraordinary profits generated during the war in Ukraine in roughly half the time.

Several companies have already seen a strong market response. Venture Global, which sells about one third of its LNG cargoes on the spot market, has experienced a share price increase of nearly 29 percent since the conflict began, according to Forbes. Cheniere Energy, the largest LNG producer in the United States, has gained roughly 9 percent over the same period.

Jason Feer, head of LNG intelligence at consultancy Poten & Partners, said U.S. exporters hold a strategic advantage because they control flexible volumes that can be sold during periods of extreme price spikes.

The broader oil industry has not benefited to the same extent. Crude prices have jumped about 40 percent since the war began on February 28, with Brent briefly surpassing $111 per barrel on Monday, its highest level since 2022.

Yet the shares of the world’s five largest oil majors, ExxonMobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, BP and Shell, have risen by only about 1.4 percent on average, according to Barron’s. Among them, BP posted the strongest increase at about 18 percent, while Chevron saw a gain closer to 4 percent. Reuters reported that the iShares Global Energy ETF, which tracks major energy companies worldwide, advanced only around 2 percent.

The muted reaction suggests traders view the oil price surge as temporary. Oil futures are trading well below spot prices, and analysts note that any move to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or release strategic petroleum reserves could quickly erase the current price premium.

Consumers are already feeling the economic impact. Gasoline prices in the United States have climbed above $3 per gallon for the first time in months, and analysts warn they could rise further if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The waterway carries more than 20 percent of the world’s oil shipments.

Producers in the Gulf region, including Iraq and Kuwait, have begun cutting output as storage capacity fills, tightening supply even further.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told CNN that the situation could change quickly depending on how the conflict evolves. He said the price surge might fade within weeks, but warned that prolonged disruption could push oil prices above $100 per barrel for months, raising yields and driving inflation higher worldwide.