Silver surges past $79 amid China's export curbs

Saturday 10 January 2026 - 12:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Silver surges past $79 amid China's export curbs

Silver prices climbed above $79 per ounce on Friday, recovering from a sharp midweek pullback as traders grapple with tightening global supply pressures from new Chinese export restrictions that took effect on January 1. The white metal traded around $79.79 per ounce as of January 10, 2026, reflecting a staggering more than 150% gain over the past year. This rally follows a record high of $83.62 per ounce late last December, before profit-taking sparked a volatile correction that saw prices drop over 5% in a single session on January 8.

China's Ministry of Commerce introduced stringent licensing requirements at the start of the year, placing about 60% to 70% of global refined silver exports under government oversight. Only 44 state-approved companies meeting rigorous standards such as annual production capacity of at least 80 tons and credit lines exceeding $30 million can now ship the metal abroad. Tesla CEO Elon Musk flagged these curbs as "concerning" on social media late last December, noting that silver plays a critical role in numerous industrial processes.

The supply crunch intensifies an ongoing structural deficit in the silver market, marking its fifth straight year of shortfall. Global demand reached an estimated 1.24 billion ounces in 2025, outpacing total supply of roughly 1.01 billion ounces and leaving a gap of over 200 million ounces. Industrial uses now account for more than half of annual demand, driven by solar panel production, electric vehicles, and AI data centers.

COMEX silver inventories are dwindling fast, with 3.25 million ounces withdrawn from warehouses on January 7 alone, according to CME data. Analyst David Jensen observed that buyers appear to be turning to the CME COMEX futures market as a venue for near-immediate physical delivery. In China, the sole dedicated silver fund, UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund LOF, plunged by its daily 10% limit late last December after its manager deemed gains "unsustainable." The fund had soared nearly 220% in 2025, while Shanghai silver futures rose about 128%; UBS SDIC Fund Management Co. then imposed tight subscription caps as the fund's premium over underlying assets hit nearly 62%.

Lower interest rates have further fueled the surge, with the Federal Reserve delivering three consecutive cuts in 2025 that brought the federal funds rate to a 3.50% to 3.75% range. Easier monetary policy typically bolsters precious metals like silver, which offer no yield and become more appealing versus income-generating assets.