OPEC+ ramps up oil production amid geopolitical uncertainty

Sunday 03 August 2025 - 15:30

In a strategic move to regain market share, the eight key members of OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced on Sunday an increase of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September 2025. This marks the end of a production hike cycle initiated in April.

The decision was largely anticipated by markets and is already factored into current oil prices, according to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Brent crude currently trades at around $70 per barrel, significantly lower than the $120 highs seen in spring 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This adjustment marks a partial reversal of previous production cuts, including a 2.2 million barrel-per-day reduction agreed upon by several OPEC+ countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. Notably, 300,000 additional barrels were allocated specifically to the UAE.

Analysts remain cautious about future increases. “We expect OPEC+ to pause further hikes after this,” said ING’s Warren Patterson, pointing to a potentially significant oil surplus by the fourth quarter of 2025.

High geopolitical tensions—especially the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict—continue to support oil prices. However, real supply disruptions would be necessary for OPEC+ to respond with more aggressive measures, says Staunovo.

The U.S. has added pressure to the global oil market. President Donald Trump recently gave Russia a 10-day ultimatum to end the conflict in Ukraine or face new sanctions, including tariffs aimed at countries importing Russian oil—particularly targeting India, now the second-largest buyer of Russian barrels.

The next full OPEC+ meeting, involving all 22 members, is scheduled for the end of November, but the core eight will convene again on September 7.