Nuclear: Saudi Arabia Prepares to Strengthen IAEA Oversight Powers

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Saudi Arabia may soon accept a broader nuclear oversight framework from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). According to Rafael Grossi, the agency's director general, Riyadh is working on measures that, while not fully adopting the IAEA's additional protocol, could grant it comparable inspection privileges in certain areas.

This development comes as the United States and Saudi Arabia reached a cooperation agreement in July regarding civil nuclear energy.

A Nuclear Agreement Raising Inspection Questions

The agreement between Washington and Riyadh is intended to govern American cooperation in the development of Saudi civil nuclear energy. It notably paves the way for the use of American technologies for reactor construction and provides for Saudi Arabia to develop uranium enrichment capabilities.

This latter point is particularly sensitive for the international nuclear non-proliferation regime. Enrichment can serve civilian applications, but the associated technologies and infrastructures can also have a strategic dimension.

In this context, the level of oversight exercised by the IAEA over Saudi nuclear activities appears to be a central element of future cooperation.

Riyadh Is Not Expected to Sign the Additional Protocol

The IAEA's additional protocol allows inspectors to have significantly greater powers than those provided by standard safeguards mechanisms. It facilitates access to a broader range of sites and information to detect any undeclared nuclear activities.

According to Rafael Grossi, however, the U.S.-Saudi agreement does not foresee Riyadh formally adhering to this protocol.

Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia could implement certain provisions offering the international agency enhanced verification capabilities. The IAEA's director general believes that ongoing discussions are approaching, on several points, the level of oversight associated with the additional protocol.

A Strategic Issue for the Saudi Nuclear Program

The development of the nuclear industry is one of the axes of Saudi Arabia's energy strategy. Riyadh seeks to diversify its energy mix and gradually reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons while developing new industrial and technological capacities.

Cooperation with the United States could accelerate this ambition. However, the growth of Saudi nuclear capabilities necessarily comes with increased international demands for transparency and verification.

For the IAEA, the goal is to have sufficiently precise information to ensure that declared activities correspond to the announced uses.

The Iranian Precedent in the Background

The issue of the additional protocol also has a geopolitical dimension. Iran had accepted enhanced oversight mechanisms as part of the nuclear agreement reached in 2015 with the major powers.

The comparison is particularly significant as Saudi Arabia and Iran are two rival powers in the Middle East, even though their relations have seen a rapprochement in recent years.

Riyadh's decision regarding the degree of international oversight of its nuclear program will therefore be scrutinized well beyond its borders.

Grossi Mentions a 'Close' Arrangement on Certain Points

Rafael Grossi indicated that elements currently being prepared could bring the Saudi arrangement closer to that offered by the additional protocol, without Riyadh being formally required to adhere to it.

This formula reflects the existence of a potential compromise between Saudi Arabia's civil nuclear ambitions, American requirements, and the IAEA's concerns.

For the UN agency, the challenge will now be to determine whether the mechanisms ultimately adopted will ensure a sufficient level of transparency as Riyadh develops its nuclear infrastructures.