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Navigating Change: Morocco's Coastal Security Measures Shift Migration Patterns to Spain

Monday 19 August 2024 - 16:45

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Morocco's Enhanced Border Control Reduces Irregular Migration to Spain by 30%

Marrakech - Amid a 66% increase in irregular migrant entries to Spain this year, largely fueled by arrivals to the Canary Islands, Morocco's intensified border control plays a pivotal role in regulating migration from the North African coast.

Confidential reports from Spanish security forces, highlighted by El País, indicate that Morocco has enforced stringent measures along its northern and southern shores, including the Sahara provinces. These efforts have led to a nearly 30% decrease in irregular entries from these regions in the first half of the year, according to police sources.

Geopolitical Dynamics and Migration Trends

Despite Morocco's crackdown, migration patterns are shifting southward. Asylum seekers from Syria, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are increasingly departing from Mauritania and Senegal for the Canary Islands, marking an unusual trend for these nationalities.

Mauritania has emerged as a focal point, grappling with its own refugee crisis. Reports suggest that between 100,000 and 500,000 potential migrants are preparing for the perilous journey to Europe. The country has witnessed a staggering 6,000% increase in departures to the Canary Islands in the first half of the year, raising concerns among Spanish authorities.

The instability in the Sahel region, particularly in Mali, is further complicating the situation. Malians now constitute the largest group of irregular arrivals in Spain, presenting new challenges as many may have strong asylum claims due to ongoing conflicts and terrorism.

Oxford University migration expert Rubén Andersson connects the rise in Canary Islands entries to Morocco's firm northern control. He explains, "Repression on one part of the border leads to displacement elsewhere. In the short term, governments use control to mask the issue, but long-term solutions require more than repression."

A Surge in Irregular Migration to Spain

While Morocco's efforts have reduced some arrivals, Spain faces challenges on multiple fronts. Irregular entries by land into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta have surged by 173%, amounting to 1,605 individuals this year. Additionally, the lucrative business of drug smuggling boats, charging up to €10,000 per journey, remains a persistent issue.

Arrivals from Algeria have risen by 15% in the first half of the year, impacting the Balearic Islands significantly. This uptick coincides with a bilateral crisis between Algiers and Rabat, halting deportations of Algerian nationals since March 2022.

Spanish authorities anticipate mounting pressure as refugees from the Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa move toward African coasts with plans to migrate. The situation is expected to intensify in the year's final months when calmer Atlantic conditions facilitate boat departures.

Strategic Solutions and Regional Cooperation

Looking ahead, Andersson advocates for "a more strategic approach" that promotes legal and safe migration pathways while addressing demographic and labor disparities between Europe and Africa.

As the situation evolves, collaboration among Spain, Morocco, and regional partners remains crucial in managing migration flows and addressing the intricate factors driving irregular movement across the Western Mediterranean.