Estonia says Russia does not plan NATO attack in near term

Tuesday 10 February 2026 - 18:50

By: Dakir Madiha

Estonia says Russia does not plan NATO attack in near term

Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said in its 2026 annual report on Tuesday that Russia does not intend to launch a military attack on a NATO member state this year or next year. The 86-page assessment, however, warned that Moscow is rebuilding its military capabilities at speed as European nations accelerate their own defense spending.

Kaupo Rosin, director general of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, told reporters that Europe’s defensive measures have forced Russia to weigh its options carefully. He said Europe should keep investing in defense and domestic security so that Russia ultimately concludes it has no chance against NATO countries.

Rosin said Russian leaders are closely watching Europe’s military buildup and are “very concerned” by it. He added that Moscow sees a risk that Europe could be capable of conducting an independent military operation against Russia within two to three years, and that Russia’s current aim is to slow and obstruct those developments.

The report said Russia’s ammunition output has increased more than seventeen-fold since 2021, a sign, it argued, that Moscow is preparing for potential future conflicts even as its war against Ukraine continues. If Russia were to attack Estonia, the intelligence service assessed it would likely involve coordinated drone operations on land, in the air and at sea, conducted simultaneously across Estonian territory.

The assessment also cautioned against reading too much into what it described as Russia’s apparent openness to cooperation with the Trump administration, arguing that Moscow’s strategic objectives remain unchanged. The Kremlin, it said, continues to view the United States as its primary global adversary while seeking to exploit diplomatic openings to push for sanctions relief.

The report said the shift reflects the Kremlin’s ambition to use the new U.S. administration to restore bilateral ties and pursue a settlement that would formalize Ukraine’s defeat. It argued that any perceived thaw is illusory, and that Russia still seeks to marginalize the United States and NATO while reshaping Europe’s security architecture in line with Moscow’s vision.

Estonia’s intelligence service also pointed to deepening cooperation between Russia and China, describing Beijing as seeing Moscow as a valuable partner in efforts to reduce Western influence. It said the two countries are collaborating on military technology research and warned that concessions to Russia would, in effect, fuel China’s broader global ambitions.