Netanyahu's Tactical Gamble: Impact of Haniyeh's Death on Israeli Politics

The recent assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut have sparked intense debate over their potential impact on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political fortunes. Analysts suggest these actions might bolster Netanyahu's standing domestically as he grapples with political challenges, although they could also complicate efforts to secure the release of Israeli hostages.

Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israel-Palestine with the European Council on Foreign Relations, remarked to Al Jazeera, "The assassination of Haniyeh significantly enhances Netanyahu’s political and security credentials. It is undoubtedly a political asset."

Netanyahu's government has been beset by internal unrest, driven by widespread protests against controversial judicial reforms and growing discontent over his handling of the conflict with Hamas. The recent arrests of soldiers accused of mistreating Palestinian prisoners have further inflamed tensions, with far-right Israelis and members of the Knesset reacting angrily.

Yet, this week's high-profile assassinations may provide Netanyahu with a temporary shift in narrative. On July 30, Israeli forces targeted Shukr in an apartment building in Dahiya, a bustling neighborhood in Beirut. Shukr, a top Hezbollah commander, was reportedly crucial in shaping the group's military strategy. This action followed a projectile attack, which Israel attributes to Hezbollah, that killed 12 Druze children and young people in the Golan Heights on July 27, although Hezbollah denies responsibility.

The following hours saw Israel's assassination of Haniyeh, who was in Tehran attending the inauguration of Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian. Haniyeh was believed to be a key figure in ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel. While Israel has not officially claimed responsibility, Iran and Hamas have both pointed fingers at Israel.

In a further development, Israel claimed on Thursday that it had also killed top Hamas operative Mohammed Deif in a Gaza strike on July 13. Deif, a founder of Hamas’s military wing, the Qassam Brigades, had long been a top target for Israeli forces.

Lovatt suggests that these actions could provide a temporary boost to Netanyahu’s political position, reflecting a narrative that despite significant challenges and criticisms, Israel is making progress against its adversaries.

The ongoing conflict, which began after a Hamas-led assault on Israeli targets on October 7, has resulted in significant casualties and widespread destruction in Gaza. The war has claimed nearly 40,000 lives, predominantly civilians, and caused severe humanitarian crises including famine and a polio outbreak.

Critics argue that Netanyahu's political survival may be intertwined with his decisions regarding the conflict. Ori Goldberg, an expert on Israeli politics, indicates that while many Israelis view the assassinations as a strategic victory, there is concern over potential retaliatory strikes by Iran and its allies.

Oren Ziv, an Israeli journalist, notes that the assassinations serve both Netanyahu and the security establishment, providing a means to restore credibility domestically. However, there remains apprehension about the long-term implications, particularly for those advocating for a hostage deal.

On July 25, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris urged for a ceasefire and the release of captives, contrasting with Netanyahu's recent Congressional address advocating continued military action. While Netanyahu’s popularity has suffered since October 7, his recent speech in Congress has garnered some domestic support.

Lovatt speculates that Netanyahu may have calculated that eliminating Haniyeh could derail ceasefire talks, thus prolonging the conflict and potentially securing his political position. This calculation, he suggests, reflects a cynical approach, potentially punishing Israeli hostages in the process.

Ziv adds that while many Israelis support the assassinations, there is growing concern about the timing and its impact on achieving a ceasefire agreement, particularly among families of the hostages who fear that such actions could hinder efforts to secure their release.