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French Parliament Faces Complex Puzzle in Post-Election Coalition Talks

Tuesday 09 July 2024 - 09:45

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A fractious political climate and deep ideological divisions are making it extremely challenging to find common ground.

Following pivotal legislative elections in France, a broad leftist coalition emerged as the frontrunner but fell short of an absolute majority. This outcome has forced parliament and the executive into difficult negotiations to agree on a prime minister.

In the first round of polling, the far right made significant gains, but ultimately, the electorate kept the Nationally Rally party at bay. This has left the country in the unprecedented position of lacking a dominant political bloc in parliament.

Three major blocs have emerged, none of which commands a majority of at least 289 seats out of 577. The results allocate 182 seats to the New Popular Front leftist coalition, 168 to President Emmanuel Macron's Together for the Republic centrist coalition, and 143 to the far-right National Rally party.

These results mean Macron's centrist allies are unlikely to implement their pro-business proposals, such as overhauling unemployment benefits, and could face challenges passing a budget.

While a fractured parliament is not uncommon in Europe, France has not experienced one in its modern history. This sets the stage for tense negotiations to form a new government and appoint a prime minister, who will focus on domestic policy and share power with the president.

No obvious candidate has yet emerged. Macron can propose a name, but would still need the support of a parliamentary majority, following his bloc's embarrassing second-place finish in the snap election he called.

Macron, heading to Washington this week for a NATO summit, has stated that he will wait to decide on his next steps. However, new legislators are set to begin work on Monday, with their first session scheduled for July 18th.

Macron may seek a deal with more moderate elements of the left, but France has no tradition of such arrangements. Thus, these negotiations are expected to be difficult and could result in an informal and fragile alliance.

Sylvain Maillard, a former president of the Renaissance group at the National Assembly who was re-elected under the Ensemble banner, suggests that forming a majority could take "several weeks."

"It's going to take time for us to establish a programmatic basis. It's not in France's culture to build coalitions and alliances quickly. But when I look at our European partners, it takes several weeks, so we're probably in for several weeks of discussions," he said.

Macron has previously indicated he will not collaborate with the hard-left France Unbowed party, but he could still reach out to other parties in the New Popular Front, such as the Socialists and the Greens. However, whether they will accept his offer remains uncertain.

One person unlikely to be considered is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the hard-left France Unbowed party. While Mélenchon asserts that the leftist alliance is "ready to govern," Macron refuses to work with him, and his coalition has not proposed him—or anyone else—for the job. The 72-year-old founder of France Unbowed is disliked by many moderates and often seen as authoritarian.

Political rivals argue that the left's victory in Sunday's parliamentary elections stemmed more from fear of the far right than from attraction to Mélenchon or his party. For now, leaders of the New Popular Front say further internal discussions are needed.