WTO says global goods trade remains resilient despite geopolitical tensions

09:32

By: Azzat Manal

WTO says global goods trade remains resilient despite geopolitical tensions

The World Trade Organization (WTO) says global merchandise trade has continued to show resilience through the middle of 2026, despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty and growing concerns over trade policies.

According to the WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer, released on Wednesday, the indicator rose to 102 points, up from 101.7 in June. Remaining above its benchmark level of 100, the reading suggests that global merchandise trade volumes are still performing above their recent trend and maintaining a generally positive trajectory.

The organization said strong demand for electronic components and other goods linked to investment in artificial intelligence is helping offset some of the negative effects of geopolitical conflicts, particularly the continuing instability in the Middle East. The expansion of AI-related industries has supported demand for semiconductors, computing equipment and other technology products that are increasingly important to global supply chains.

Electronic components recorded the strongest performance among the barometer’s individual indicators, reaching 104.9 points. The WTO said the figure reflects sustained demand for products used in the development and deployment of artificial intelligence technologies.

The export orders index, which is considered an important forward-looking indicator for international trade, stood at 103.5 points. Its position above the trend level suggests that merchandise trade could continue expanding in the coming months, although the WTO stressed that significant risks remain.

Other components of the barometer also remained relatively strong. International air freight reached 102.8 points, while the agricultural raw materials trade index stood at 102.6 points. The automotive products index was recorded at 101.5 points, also remaining above its recent trend.

Container shipping was the only major component to fall below its trend, with an index reading of 99.6 points. The weaker performance reflects continued pressure on maritime transport and international supply chains, which remain vulnerable to disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions and changes in shipping routes.

The latest figures indicate that global trade has so far been able to withstand a difficult international environment. Businesses and consumers continue to generate demand for goods, while investment in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence is creating additional momentum in some sectors.

The WTO had previously forecast in its March 2026 Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report that the volume of world merchandise trade would increase by 1.9 percent in 2026 under its baseline scenario. However, the organization estimated that growth could slow to 1.4 percent if energy prices rise significantly as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.

At the time, the WTO also estimated that sustained investment in artificial intelligence could add around 0.5 percentage points to global merchandise trade growth. The volume of world merchandise trade remained positive on an annual basis during the first quarter of 2026, providing an additional indication of the sector’s underlying strength.

Nevertheless, the organization warned that the effects of disruptions affecting trade through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to become more visible in second-quarter data once the figures are available. The strategic waterway is a major route for global energy shipments, meaning prolonged disruption could affect transportation costs, energy prices and international supply chains.

The WTO is expected to release an updated edition of its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics in October. The new assessment will provide a clearer picture of how geopolitical tensions, energy market developments, trade policy uncertainty and the rapid expansion of AI-related investment are affecting global commerce.

For now, the latest Goods Trade Barometer suggests that international merchandise trade remains stronger than its recent trend, despite an increasingly uncertain global environment.