Viktor Orban's Global Peace Mission: A Diplomatic Odyssey Without a Roadmap

In an audacious display of international diplomacy, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban has embarked on a whirlwind tour across the globe, positioning himself as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Over the past two weeks, Orban has made stops in Kyiv, Moscow, Azerbaijan, Beijing, Washington, and even Mar-a-Lago, presenting himself as a peacemaker despite lacking a concrete peace plan. This ambitious endeavor has sparked sharp criticism from leaders in both the European Union and the United States.

"Peace will not come by itself in the Russia-Ukraine war, someone has to make it," Orban declares emphatically in his daily Facebook videos. However, his unilateral actions have been met with ire from Brussels and Washington, who accuse him of undermining EU and NATO solidarity by engaging with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. While the premise of needing peacemakers is widely accepted, Orban's close economic ties with Putin expose him to allegations of being a puppet for the Kremlin.

Orban's approach to peace involves advocating for a ceasefire with a fixed deadline. "I am not negotiating on behalf of anyone," he stated during a brief stopover in Budapest, situated between his visits to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv and President Putin in Moscow. As Hungary takes on the rotating presidency of the European Union for the next six months, Orban's diplomatic maneuvers have garnered significant attention.

His visit to Kyiv marked his first since the war began, followed by a contentious trip to Russia, the first by an EU leader since April 2022. This visit to the Kremlin notably angered his European counterparts. Charles Michel, President of the European Council, clarified that the rotating presidency does not grant a mandate to engage with Russia on behalf of the EU. Orban conceded this point but maintained he was merely "clarifying the facts."

In domestic politics, Orban's Fidesz party secured 45% of the vote in the recent European elections, a significant lead over Peter Magyar's nascent Tisza party. Nonetheless, Orban's loss of over 700,000 votes compared to the 2022 parliamentary elections suggests a chink in his political armor. To reaffirm his strength to the Hungarian populace, Orban's global peace mission serves as a strategic move to bolster his image.

Internationally, Orban's efforts coincide with the formation of the Patriots for Europe (PfE) group in the European Parliament, which has attracted 84 MEPs from far-right parties across 11 countries, positioning it as the third-largest faction. This political maneuvering underscores Orban's intent to expand his influence beyond Hungary.

Orban's Moscow visit was met with commendation from the Kremlin. "We take it very, very positively. We believe it can be very useful," stated Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Conversely, the US reaction was tepid. "We would welcome, of course, actual diplomacy with Russia to make it clear to Russia that they need to respect Ukraine's sovereignty, that they need to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity," said US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller. He added that Orban's visit did not appear to align with these objectives. Nonetheless, the US did appreciate Orban's first visit to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began.

Orban has been reticent about the specifics of his discussions in Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing. In Kyiv, he reportedly posed several questions to Zelensky to gauge his intentions and establish the boundaries for peace negotiations. Orban has also lauded Xi Jinping and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for their roles in fostering dialogue. During a NATO summit in Washington, Orban praised Erdogan as the "only man who has overseen an agreement between Russia and Ukraine," referencing the now-defunct Black Sea grain deal. Regarding Xi, Orban highlighted China's commitment to peace and its constructive initiatives.

Concluding his tour with a visit to Mar-a-Lago, Orban expressed strong support for presidential candidate Donald Trump, whom he credits with maintaining peace during his previous term. "He did not initiate a single war," Orban remarked in an interview.

This extensive diplomatic tour has placed Orban, the leader of a relatively small Eastern European nation with 9.7 million inhabitants, in the international spotlight. The critical question remains: who is Orban trying to impress, and what impact might his actions have? Domestically, Orban's message aims to reinforce his leadership amidst a challenging political year, marked by scandals and the emergence of a formidable challenger, Peter Magyar.

A leaked letter to Charles Michel, sent from Azerbaijan, provides some insight into Orban's strategy. He conveyed that Putin was open to a ceasefire, provided it did not allow Ukraine to reorganize its forces. This sentiment echoed Zelensky's concerns that Russia would use any ceasefire to regroup. Orban was reportedly "surprised" by Zelensky's belief in reclaiming lost territories, while Putin indicated that "time favors Russian forces."

Arriving in Washington, Orban reiterated his stance that NATO should focus on "winning peace, not wars." Unlike his NATO allies, Orban views the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a civil war between Slav nations, exacerbated by US support for Ukraine. Orban anticipates that a Trump victory in the upcoming presidential election could compel both sides to negotiate.

In summary, Viktor Orban's global tour has been a bold yet controversial attempt to position himself as a peacebroker. While his actions have stirred international debate, the long-term effects on both his domestic standing and global diplomacy remain to be seen.