Transboundary Waters: Floods Strain Bangladesh-India Relations Amidst Climate Challenges

In recent weeks, Bangladesh has witnessed a surge of anti-India sentiment following severe flooding in its northeastern regions. The deluge, which began on August 21, has sparked a heated debate over transboundary water management between the two nations, bringing long-standing tensions to the forefront.

The interim government of Bangladesh, led by Nobel Peace Laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus, has accused India of releasing water from a dam in Tripura state without proper notification. This allegation has fueled protests across university campuses, with students chanting anti-India slogans and government representatives making strong statements against their neighbor.

Nahid Islam, a student representative in Bangladesh's interim government and head of the Information Technology Ministry, went as far as to accuse India of "water terrorism" in social media posts. He suggested that involving China in the Teesta water project could address India's perceived intransigence.

The controversy touches upon a complex history of water-sharing disputes between India and Bangladesh, which share 54 transboundary rivers, including the Ganga (Padma), Teesta, and Brahmaputra (Jamuna). The Teesta water-sharing issue, in particular, has been a long-standing point of contention between the two countries.

In response to the escalating situation, India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a statement on Thursday, refuting claims that the opening of the Dumbur dam in Tripura caused the floods. The MEA explained that unprecedented rainfall in the catchment areas of the Gumti river was the primary cause of the flooding, emphasizing that the dam's location and design make it unlikely to be the sole culprit.

The Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Pranay Verma, met with Muhammad Yunus to address the situation and discuss potential solutions. During this meeting, Yunus proposed forming a high-level committee between Bangladesh and India to manage floods jointly, highlighting the need for improved bilateral cooperation on water management issues.

However, resolving these disputes is far from simple. The legacy of historical grievances, exemplified by the late Maulana Abdul Hamid Khan Bhashani's Farakka Long March in 1976, continues to influence public opinion in Bangladesh. Many Bangladeshis still demand the decommissioning of India's Farakka Barrage, which they believe deprives their country of its fair share of the Ganga's waters.

The situation is further complicated by internal Indian politics. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee opposes the Teesta water-sharing agreement, citing concerns about water scarcity in her state. Additionally, the state of Sikkim's reliance on hydroelectric dams adds another layer of complexity to the issue.

Climate change is exacerbating these challenges. The northeastern Indian region, which includes states that share rivers with Bangladesh, is experiencing increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns. Meteorologist Mostafa Kamal noted that the recent floods resulted from record rainfall equivalent to an entire month's average precipitation falling in just three days.

Looking ahead, climate projections suggest a trend toward longer dry spells interrupted by intense rainfall events in northeastern India. This shifting weather pattern could lead to more frequent floods and droughts, potentially impacting water availability in downstream Bangladesh.

As the 30-year term of the Indo-Bangladesh Water-Sharing Treaty approaches its end in 2026, both countries face mounting pressure to address these issues. Some Bangladeshi experts, like economist Anu Muhammad, advocate for involving international bodies such as the United Nations Water Convention to mediate the disputes.

The recent floods have underscored the urgent need for improved transboundary water management and cooperation between India and Bangladesh. As climate change continues to alter weather patterns and water availability, finding sustainable solutions to these long-standing issues will be crucial for maintaining regional stability and ensuring equitable access to water resources for both nations.