Shifting Sands: Polisario Front's Influence Diminishes in Sahara Conflict

Tuesday 20 August 2024 - 08:20

Polisario’s Waning Influence Amid Growing Support for Morocco's Autonomy Plan

A recent analysis by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria highlights the declining influence of the Polisario Front in the Sahara dispute. The separatist movement, aiming to partition Morocco’s southern provinces, is reportedly "losing ground" against Morocco’s rising international support.

The report emphasizes increased backing for Morocco’s Autonomy Plan, which suggests limited autonomy for Sahara under Moroccan rule. Notably, key global powers have endorsed this approach: the United States recognized Morocco’s sovereignty in 2020, Spain followed suit in 2022, and French President Emmanuel Macron recently expressed his support.

These developments have reportedly driven the Polisario Front to resume armed conflict. Liesl Louw-Vaudran, an AU Senior Adviser, notes Morocco’s success in keeping the issue off the African Union agenda, effectively sidelining it from continental discussions.

The ISS report also observes decreasing support for the “Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic” (SADR) within the African Union. Although the SADR remains recognized by the AU, many countries are reconsidering their stance, with several withdrawing or freezing recognition.

Meanwhile, Morocco’s diplomatic efforts have led to 22 African nations opening consulates in its southern provinces, signaling acknowledgment of Moroccan sovereignty. Some South African officials have also expressed skepticism about the Polisario’s cause, noting a lack of grassroots international mobilization comparable to historical movements like the ANC.

Even Mohamed Beisat, the Polisario Front’s representative in South Africa, concedes that their movement has not achieved the widespread international support seen in other global causes.

Morocco maintains that the Polisario leaders lack legitimacy and that their push for a referendum is impractical. Instead, Morocco is focusing on securing international backing for its Autonomy Plan, which it views as the only feasible resolution.

The ISS report suggests that the UN’s call for a referendum may face resistance from influential Security Council members like France and the US, who might advocate for Morocco’s proposal as the sole path forward.

As the Polisario Front's backing diminishes and Morocco's diplomatic efforts gain momentum, the conflict’s trajectory seems to be shifting toward a resolution that upholds Morocco’s territorial claims.