Oil: Venezuela Considers Leaving OPEC and Strengthening Ties with the United States

Friday 28 August 2026 - 08:56

Venezuela is exploring the possibility of leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) amid a growing rapprochement with the United States regarding its energy sector. However, no definitive decision has been announced at this stage.

This potential exit comes as Caracas and Washington discuss new cooperation modalities in the oil industry. The negotiations focus on long-term access to several Venezuelan oil fields and the role that American companies could play in their development.

Caracas Faces a Strategic Choice

Venezuela is one of the five countries that founded OPEC in 1960. Therefore, a potential withdrawal would represent a particularly symbolic turning point for the oil cartel, of which Caracas has historically been one of the founding members.

The idea of leaving is linked to Venezuela's ambitions to revive its production. The country holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but its industry continues to face significant challenges related to infrastructure, investment, and operational capacity.

Outside of OPEC, Caracas might have greater flexibility to define its production goals and negotiate with foreign partners.

Washington Strengthens Interest in Venezuelan Oil

This reflection comes as the United States seeks to deepen its presence in the Venezuelan oil sector. Ongoing discussions focus on the development of several fields and could allow American companies to participate more in their exploitation and modernization.

For Washington, the stakes are also energy-related. Increasing Venezuelan production could help secure additional supplies for the American market.

For Caracas, the influx of foreign capital, technology, and expertise represents an opportunity to gradually restore aging oil infrastructure and regain a larger production capacity.

The Constraint of Quotas at the Heart of the Issue

Membership in OPEC requires producers to adhere to a collective supply management policy. For a Venezuela eager to rapidly increase its production, this coordination can seem like a constraint.

The country currently produces far less oil than at its historical peak, despite the magnitude of its reserves. A significant increase in production would require considerable investments and several years of infrastructure upgrades.

Withdrawing from OPEC would allow Venezuela to pursue a production policy more aligned with its own goals and those of its future industrial partners.

A New Blow to OPEC's Cohesion

The Venezuelan hypothesis arises during an already delicate period for OPEC. The departure of the United Arab Emirates earlier this year has fueled questions about the group's cohesion and its ability to maintain a common strategy among producers with sometimes divergent interests.

A potential exit by Venezuela would intensify these questions. Beyond the loss of a historical member, it could be interpreted as a sign of a gradual transformation of power dynamics within the global oil market.

However, the issue is not limited to the number of members. OPEC's influence also depends on the ability of its main producers to coordinate their decisions and impact the balance between supply and demand.

Limited Immediate Impact on Markets

From a strictly oil perspective, Venezuela's departure would not necessarily cause an immediate upheaval in prices. The country's current production remains significantly below its potential and historical levels.

The effect could be felt more in the medium term if an exit from OPEC is accompanied by a substantial increase in Venezuelan production.

However, revitalizing the fields would require significant investments, as well as modernization of extraction, transportation, and processing infrastructure. Venezuela's actual capacity to quickly boost its exports will largely depend on agreements made with its foreign partners.

A Transforming Caracas-Washington Relationship

The question of OPEC ultimately fits into a broader reshaping of the relationship between Venezuela and the United States. Oil plays a central role in this rapprochement, given the weight of Venezuelan reserves and American energy needs.

For Caracas, strengthening ties with Washington could pave the way for new investments and a revival of its industry. For the United States, access to some Venezuelan resources represents a strategic opportunity in the regional energy market.

However, the decision regarding OPEC remains open. If Caracas confirms its withdrawal, Venezuela would turn a major page in its oil history and send a strong signal of its intent to redefine its energy strategy.

A Choice with Geopolitical Consequences

More than just a decision related to production quotas, leaving OPEC would be an economic and geopolitical choice. It could accompany Venezuela's repositioning towards new partners and alter its relationship with key players in the oil market.

For OPEC, the stakes would also be symbolic: losing one of its founding members after the departure of the United Arab Emirates would heighten questions about the cartel's future and its influence in a rapidly changing global market.

At this stage, however, Caracas has not officially announced its departure. Discussions continue, and their outcome may depend as much on oil negotiations with Washington as on the conditions that would allow Venezuela to sustainably revive its production.