NASA's Crucial Decision: Starliner vs. SpaceX for Astronaut Return as Private Spacewalk Looms

In a pivotal moment for space exploration, NASA is poised to announce a critical decision regarding the return of US astronauts from the International Space Station (ISS). The space agency is expected to reveal as early as Saturday, August 24, whether astronauts will safely return aboard the Boeing Starliner spacecraft that transported them to the ISS or if they will need to await a SpaceX vehicle for their journey home.

This decision follows technical issues that have plagued the Starliner, including leaks and thruster failures, which have extended what was initially planned as an eight-day mission into a months-long stay on the ISS. The potential use of a SpaceX craft for the return journey would mark another setback for Boeing, a company already grappling with challenges in its aerospace division.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson will be present at the agency-level review where this crucial decision will be made. The space agency is meticulously weighing new test data provided by Boeing, which the company claims validates Starliner's safety for astronaut transport, against NASA's traditionally low risk tolerance for manned missions.

The stakes are high for Boeing, which has invested heavily in the Starliner program, incurring $1.6 billion in losses according to securities filings. The company faces stiff competition from SpaceX's Crew Dragon, which has already established a track record of successful missions.

Should NASA opt for the SpaceX alternative, astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore would remain on the ISS until February 2025, returning on a future SpaceX mission. In this scenario, the Starliner would be brought back to Earth unmanned.

Meanwhile, SpaceX is preparing for a groundbreaking mission of its own. The company is set to launch one of its most daring endeavors yet: the first-ever private-sector spacewalk. This mission, dubbed Polaris Dawn, will push the boundaries of commercial space exploration in multiple ways.

Led by billionaire entrepreneur Jared Isaacman, the Polaris Dawn crew will include a retired military fighter pilot and two SpaceX employees. The mission plan involves a 20-minute spacewalk at an altitude of 434 miles (698 km) above Earth, significantly higher than the ISS's orbit of 250 miles.

The five-day mission will follow an elliptical orbit, bringing the crew as close as 118 miles to Earth and as far as 870 miles away—the greatest distance humans will have traveled since the Apollo moon missions ended in 1972.

Innovations for this mission include slim spacesuits and a modified Crew Dragon capsule capable of opening its hatch in the vacuum of space, eliminating the need for an airlock. This daring approach has drawn attention from space experts, including retired NASA astronaut Garrett Reisman, who noted, "They're pushing the envelope in multiple ways."

The Polaris Dawn mission, estimated to cost around $100 million, represents a significant step in private space exploration. It not only aims to conduct the first commercial spacewalk but also to venture into higher orbits with more severe radiation environments than those typically encountered in low Earth orbit missions.

As NASA deliberates on the safest return option for its ISS crew and SpaceX prepares for its pioneering private spacewalk, the space industry stands at a crossroads. These concurrent developments underscore the rapidly evolving landscape of space exploration, where established aerospace companies and newer, nimble competitors are reshaping the boundaries of what is possible beyond Earth's atmosphere.

The outcomes of both NASA's decision and SpaceX's ambitious mission will likely have far-reaching implications for the future of space travel, commercial space operations, and the ongoing competition between traditional aerospace giants and emerging private space companies.