Morocco's Economic Trajectory: IMF Projects Steady Growth Through 2025

Wednesday 23 October 2024 - 12:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Morocco's Economic Trajectory: IMF Projects Steady Growth Through 2025

Morocco's economy is set for a calculated upswing, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting growth rates of 2.8% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025, signaling a gradual but promising recovery for the North African nation.

The latest "World Economic Outlook" report presents an encouraging scenario for Morocco's economic future, with inflation expected to moderate to 1.7% in 2024 before settling at 2.3% in 2025. The country's longer-term outlook suggests sustained growth, reaching 3.4% by 2029, while maintaining stable inflation around 2.0%.

The unemployment landscape shows signs of improvement, with current rates of 13.4% projected to decrease to 12.6% by 2025. However, challenges persist in external trade, as reflected in the forecasted current account balance of -2.0% in 2024 and -2.3% in 2025.

Morocco's recent economic performance has weathered significant challenges. The country experienced a sharp decline in GDP growth from 8% in 2021 to 1.3% in 2022, primarily due to severe drought conditions and global economic pressures stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, 2023 marked the beginning of a recovery phase, with GDP growth reaching 3% in the first half of the year, driven by improvements in agriculture, tourism, and export sectors.

The tourism industry has demonstrated particular resilience, even in the wake of the September 2023 Al Haouz earthquake. The sector reported revenues of $3.2 billion in the first four months of 2024, marking a 10.6% increase compared to the previous year, fueled by rising tourist arrivals.

In the broader regional context, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to experience economic growth of 2.1% in 2024, with a projected increase to 4.0% in 2025, supported by declining inflation rates.

Morocco's economic future appears increasingly tied to its reform initiatives, including the establishment of the Mohammed VI Investment Fund and the implementation of a new investment charter, both designed to stimulate private sector growth.