Italy set to become eurozone’s most indebted country, overtaking Greece

Saturday 25 April 2026 - 14:15

Italy is on track to become the most indebted country in the eurozone, surpassing Greece for the first time in years, according to recent fiscal projections.

Estimates suggest that Italy’s public debt will peak at around 138.6% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, slightly above Greece’s expected debt ratio of approximately 137% this year. This shift reflects diverging economic trajectories between the two countries after years of financial adjustment and reform.

Greece, once at the center of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, has significantly reduced its debt burden over the past five years. From a peak exceeding 200% of GDP in 2020, the country has steadily improved its fiscal position through economic recovery, budget discipline, and structural reforms.

In contrast, Italy continues to face structural economic challenges, including slow growth, high public spending, and demographic pressures. While the country has managed to stabilize its debt in recent years, projections indicate a temporary increase before a gradual decline later in the decade.

Data from Italy’s multi-year budget plan suggest that after reaching its peak in 2026, the country’s debt ratio could stabilize and then slowly decrease in the following years. However, it is expected to remain at elevated levels compared to other eurozone economies.

Meanwhile, other major economies such as France are also dealing with high debt levels, though still below those projected for Italy and Greece. France’s public debt is forecast to exceed 118% of GDP by 2026.

The changing ranking highlights broader trends within the eurozone, where fiscal consolidation efforts and economic growth have had uneven impacts across member states. Analysts note that while Greece’s progress reflects successful stabilization, Italy’s outlook underscores ongoing vulnerabilities in Europe’s third-largest economy.

As both countries prepare to submit updated budget plans to the European Commission, the evolution of their debt levels will remain closely monitored by policymakers and investors alike.