COP31: Countries Divided as Global Warming Set to Exceed the 1.5°C Limit

The international climate debate has entered a new and difficult phase as the world prepares for the inevitable breach of the 1.5°C global warming threshold. Nearly a decade after the Paris Agreement established this limit as a central objective of international climate policy, governments are increasingly confronted with a question that goes beyond preventing global warming: how can its consequences be contained, and can temperatures eventually be brought back below the agreed threshold?

The issue is at the heart of discussions at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, where participating countries remain divided over the level of ambition and the measures needed to address the changing climate outlook.

The 1.5°C threshold: From prevention to damage limitation

When the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, governments committed to keeping the increase in global average temperatures well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Today, global temperatures have already risen by approximately 1.4°C compared with the 1850–1900 reference period. Continued greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from fossil fuel consumption, have significantly reduced the remaining carbon budget.

Scientists now consider a temporary breach of the 1.5°C threshold virtually unavoidable. The challenge is therefore shifting towards limiting how far temperatures rise beyond that level and how long the planet remains above it.

For countries particularly exposed to climate change, however, even a temporary overshoot represents a serious threat. Small island states face rising sea levels, increasingly vulnerable coastal communities, coral reef degradation and more destructive storms.

Speaking at COP31, Surangel Whipps Jr., President of Palau, stressed that the 1.5°C objective represents a matter of national survival rather than simply an international environmental benchmark.

International divisions complicate climate negotiations

Despite growing scientific agreement on the urgency of the situation, governments have yet to establish a common position on how the next phase of climate action should be organised.

Several countries want the international community to maintain the 1.5°C objective and return below it as quickly as possible. They argue that abandoning this ambition could weaken political pressure to accelerate emissions reductions.

Other governments are more reluctant to reinforce the target, particularly amid concerns about the economic and financial consequences of additional climate commitments.

Some emerging economies fear that stronger requirements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could place disproportionate pressure on developing countries without providing the necessary financial assistance, technology transfers and institutional support.

These disagreements are complicating negotiations at COP31, where the question is no longer limited to setting climate objectives but increasingly concerns how responsibilities and costs should be distributed.

The risk of weakening international climate ambition

Maintaining the 1.5°C objective has become an important political issue because of its influence on national emissions policies.

Some climate representatives warn that moving away from this benchmark could undermine years of international progress and create an opportunity for governments to postpone difficult decisions.

For Greenpeace International, the debate must also address the unequal capacity of countries to finance their transitions. Jasper Inventor, the organisation's head of delegation at COP31, has highlighted concerns that developing economies could face additional obligations without receiving sufficient resources to implement them.

Another point of disagreement concerns the scientific pathways for returning global temperatures below 1.5°C. Questions raised during the negotiations about the reliability of certain climate scenarios have added another layer of complexity to discussions.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has called for temperatures to return below the threshold as rapidly as possible, insisting that any period of overshoot must be kept as limited and short as possible.

Carbon removal emerges as a major part of the debate

The prospect of exceeding 1.5°C has brought increasing attention to the concept of climate overshoot. This describes a situation in which global temperatures temporarily exceed the internationally agreed threshold before declining again over subsequent decades.

Achieving such a reversal would require much more than reducing future emissions. Governments would also need to remove substantial quantities of carbon dioxide already accumulated in the atmosphere.

Natural solutions, including forest restoration and ecosystem protection, could contribute to this effort. Technological approaches designed to capture and permanently store atmospheric carbon are also being considered, although their current deployment remains limited.

Pierre Friedlingstein, a professor at the University of Exeter and a leading contributor to the Global Carbon Budget research, warns that the remaining carbon budget compatible with the 1.5°C objective amounts to less than four years of emissions at current rates.

Bringing temperatures back below the threshold would therefore require an unprecedented combination of rapid emissions reductions and large-scale carbon removal.

However, expanding these technologies to the necessary level would present enormous scientific, financial and logistical challenges. Their development cannot replace the immediate need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

A narrow window for decisive climate action

Recent assessments from the Climate Action Tracker reinforce the scale of the challenge. Its November 2026 projections indicate that current government policies could result in approximately 2.7°C of warming by 2100. Even the full implementation of existing national commitments and long-term net-zero targets would not be sufficient to prevent an overshoot of 1.5°C.

The coming years will consequently be decisive in determining the extent of the damage. Accelerating renewable energy deployment, reducing methane emissions, ending deforestation and transforming energy-intensive industries remain essential priorities.

The discussions in Antalya reflect a fundamental change in international climate policy. The world is no longer debating only whether it can avoid crossing the 1.5°C threshold, but also how far it will go beyond it and whether a return remains achievable.

For vulnerable countries, the difference between a limited and prolonged overshoot could have profound consequences for their populations, economies and ecosystems. The challenge facing COP31 is to translate scientific warnings into coordinated political decisions before the remaining opportunities for action become even narrower.