China times military drills near Taiwan to US holidays, analysts say

Wednesday 31 December 2025 - 17:20

By: Dakir Madiha

China times military drills near Taiwan to US holidays, analysts say

China strategically launched its recent military exercises around Taiwan during the American holiday season, aiming to elicit a muted response from Washington and undermine global faith in US commitments to the island, according to US-based analysts. The two-day "Mission Justice 2025" drills, which wrapped up on Tuesday, featured live-fire maneuvers, bomber strikes, and warships that briefly penetrated Taiwan's 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone the closest incursion in recent years. President Donald Trump downplayed the show of force on Monday, expressing no concern and highlighting his strong rapport with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Ryan Fedasiuk, a former US State Department advisor on China policy now at the American Enterprise Institute, explained to Taiwan's Central News Agency that Beijing meticulously timed and framed the drills to achieve three key goals. First, it repurposed routine exercises into retaliation for Washington's approval of an unprecedented $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, announced on December 17; by starting the drills 11 days later, China portrayed them as justified punishment rather than standard operations. Second, scheduling them over Christmas and New Year's ensured Washington struggled to muster an immediate reaction, especially given Trump's focus on fostering a mutually beneficial economic relationship with China ahead of his planned state visit in April.

Third, Beijing stands to exploit the subdued US response to erode international confidence in American resolve, Fedasiuk noted, sending Taiwan a clear signal that resistance is pointless, US support is conditional, and accommodation with China inevitable. Richard Bush, former head of the American Institute in Taiwan and current non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, emphasized that China's primary aim was to penalize Taiwan for ramping up US arms purchases, hoping to make the Taiwanese public feel less secure under their government's policies.

While Trump brushed off the drills remarking that China has conducted naval exercises in the area for two decades and dismissing invasion risks bipartisan US congressional leaders decried them as deliberate escalation. House Select Committee on China Chairman John Moolenaar and ranking member Raja Krishnamoorthi issued a joint statement condemning the operations for intimidating Taiwan and neighboring democracies, threatening Indo-Pacific peace and stability. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense tracked 130 Chinese aircraft, including fighters and bombers, 14 warships, and eight official vessels in the first 24 hours, with 27 rockets fired during Tuesday's live-fire session, several landing in the contiguous zone.