Chad's Fifth President: Steering Towards Change and Reconciliation
Situated in the heart of the Sahel region, Chad holds a pivotal position, its geopolitical landscape intricately intertwined with neighboring conflicts in Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic, and the Lake Chad basin. President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, officially sworn in on May 24th in N'Djamena, inherits a complex tapestry of challenges and imperatives.
With a population exceeding 17 million, Chad grapples with socio-economic woes, internal tensions, and the ever-present specter of climate change, which has taken its toll on the dwindling Lake Chad. Amidst the recent wave of coups in the Sahelian states and the outbreak of civil war in Sudan, Chad emerges as an island of stability, a reliable ally for Western powers in the vast Sahel region.
Mahamat Deby's ascension to the presidency marks not only a new chapter for Chad but also a critical juncture in the region's stability and geopolitical dynamics. His victory in the May 6th presidential election, garnering 61% of the vote, concludes a three-year transition to civilian rule following the 2021 military coup. The implications of this election reverberate far beyond Chad's borders, shaping the future trajectory of the entire Sahel region.
Navigating the intricate tapestry of regional alliances and security imperatives, Mahamat Deby has shown signs of democratic openness. He has initiated negotiations with the opposition and civil society, welcoming the return of long-exiled dissident activists such as Abel Maina, Makaila Nguebla, Tahirou Hissein Dagga, and Habib Ben. Moreover, the new president spearheaded a national dialogue that culminated in a revised constitution.
Chad's influence extends beyond its borders, with the late President Idriss Deby Itno skillfully maneuvering the nation's foreign policy to garner regional and international attention. Through adept diplomacy and military prowess, Deby tamed neighboring countries, securing notable successes in the fight against terrorism and positioning Chad as a pivotal player in regional and international organizations.
Inheriting his father's legacy, Mahamat Deby's foreign policy centers on security, aiming to prevent Chadian rebel movements from establishing rear bases in neighboring countries. He has strengthened ties with President Faustin-Archange Touadera in the Central African Republic and Marshal Khalifa Haftar in Libya, while abandoning neutrality in the Sudanese conflict by supporting the "Rapid Intervention Forces" of Hamdan Dagalo, alias Hemedti.
Chad's strategic alliances with Western powers, including France and the United States, have bolstered its military capabilities and internal security. However, Mahamat Déby has initiated new partnerships in security and economy with the United Arab Emirates, Hungary, Turkey, China, and most recently, Russia, signaling a potential shift in allegiances.
The Kingdom of Morocco and Chad have forged centuries-old ties, rooted in brotherhood and cooperation. Morocco's support in areas such as education, health, agriculture, and trade has been pivotal, with the kingdom playing a significant role in training over 1,000 Chadian executives, including 200 imams. Moreover, Morocco's initiative to provide landlocked Sahel countries, including Chad, access to the Atlantic Ocean through its ports in the Sahara presents a new economic frontier.
Despite Chad's apparent stability, internal political tensions, ethnic and social divisions, and complex geopolitical relations pose formidable challenges that could erode the nation's fragile equilibrium. The system of governance inherited from the late Idriss Deby Itno is a form of "absolute Republican Monarchy," characterized by clientelism and the suppression of opposition, even within his own Zaghawa clan.
Tensions within the Chadian army, exacerbated by the growing influence of non-Zaghawa groups, and Chad's position in the Sudanese conflict have further strained the delicate social fabric. Inter-communal clashes, fueled by long-standing ethnic and identity divisions, have resurfaced separatist claims in the south and center, while the influx of over 600,000 Sudanese refugees has placed unprecedented pressure on the eastern provinces.
In his inauguration speech, President Mahamat Deby signaled a paradigm shift, vowing to turn the page on the past and transform Chad's development model. He pledged to dedicate 70% of public spending to enhancing access to education, water, health, energy, food sovereignty, and decent housing for the population. Decentralization and the organization of legislative, senatorial, and local elections were also highlighted as priorities.
Addressing the international community, Mahamat Deby affirmed Chad's belief in "active and mutually beneficial partnerships," while asserting the inviolability of the Chadian people's sovereignty. "Chad and Africa must be masters of their destiny," he declared, underscoring a resolute commitment to charting the nation's course.
The path ahead for the fifth Chadian president is fraught with challenges, as he navigates a complex political system intertwined with strategic alliances, military commitments, and internal imperatives. Achieving national reconciliation, promoting inter-community dialogue, and strengthening social cohesion are vital to address the root causes of instability and prevent conflicts.
Regional and international actors must adopt a proactive and coordinated approach, supporting Chad's political stability, economic development, and paradigm shift. The example of Rwanda, a nation that emerged from the spiral of violence and instability, stands as an inspiring benchmark for Chad, demonstrating the virtuous cycle of promoting development and the well-being of its people while maintaining a regional and continental presence.
As Chad embarks on this transformative journey, the world watches with anticipation, hopeful that the fifth president's vision will pave the way for lasting change, reconciliation, and a prosperous future for this pivotal nation in the heart of the Sahel.