Global Grain Harvest Set to Reach Record High in 2026-2027, USDA Forecasts
Global agriculture is heading towards a historic grain harvest for the 2026-2027 campaign. According to the latest forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), total grain production is expected to reach nearly 2.9 billion tons. Despite this achievement, global consumption is expected to continue exceeding production, leading to a further decline in available reserves.
The estimates published in the June WASDE report indicate that global consumption of wheat, coarse grains, and rice could rise to 2.983 billion tons, about 30 million tons more than the anticipated harvest. This situation is expected to reduce global stocks to 780.6 million tons, down from over 810 million in the previous campaign.
Wheat Supported by Strong Performances from Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine
The global wheat market benefits from improved prospects in several major producing countries. The global harvest is now estimated at 820.1 million tons. This increase is primarily attributed to Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine, whose productions have been revised upward due to favorable weather conditions.
Russia remains the main driver of this increase with an expected harvest of 88 million tons. Abundant rainfall and favorable weather have improved the yields of winter wheat. Turkey could reach a historic record of 22.5 million tons, while Ukraine's production is expected to rise to 23.5 million tons.
Conversely, Australia is facing a reduction in harvested areas, which is expected to lead to a decline in its wheat production.
Despite an increase in supply, global consumption continues to rise, particularly due to sustained demand for animal feed. Global wheat stocks are slightly increasing but remain under pressure in several regions.
United States Facing Decline in Wheat Production
In contrast to the trend observed among several competitors, the United States is expected to see a decline in its wheat harvest. Forecasts indicate a decrease in yields and a contraction of end-of-season stocks.
U.S. exports remain relatively low compared to levels observed in recent years, while agricultural prices continue to decline.
Corn Strengthens Global Supply
Coarse grains, dominated by corn, are also experiencing a notable improvement. Global production is expected to reach 1.594 billion tons.
India is among the main beneficiaries of this revision due to increased cultivated areas and better yields. Brazil and Argentina are also benefiting from favorable conditions that improve their harvest prospects.
Global corn reserves are thus increasing to over 281 million tons. International trade remains dynamic, particularly towards Mexico, Egypt, and the Philippines.
Rice Maintains Record Levels in Global Trade
The rice market presents a more stable situation. Global production is maintained at nearly 538 million tons. International trade is expected to remain at a record level of 63 million tons.
India confirms its central role in this sector with an exceptional harvest that helps sustain global supply. Despite a slight reduction in global availability, reserves remain relatively comfortable.
Oilseeds Hold Steady, Cotton Sees Declining Stocks
On the oilseed side, prospects remain favorable. Global oilseed production could exceed 718 million tons. Soybeans particularly benefit from better harvests in Argentina, which improves global availability.
Cotton, however, is on a different trajectory. Although production remains stable, global consumption continues to rise, particularly in China. This trend leads to a decrease in global stocks, which are at their lowest level in several campaigns.
Sugar and Animal Production on the Rise in North America
In the United States, forecasts for sugar have been revised upward due to better yields in beet and cane sugar crops. In Mexico, rains have helped improve production prospects despite still high production costs.
In the livestock sector, the United States anticipates an increase in poultry and pork production. The dairy sector is also showing growth due to an increase in herd size and improved yields.
Abundant Harvests but Reserves Still Under Pressure
Overall, the new forecasts from the USDA indicate a global agriculture capable of producing record volumes. However, the continued growth of global consumption prevents a significant rebuilding of stocks.
This situation confirms that the balance of agricultural markets remains fragile. The performances of major producing countries help avoid excessive pressure on global supply, but reserves continue to erode, highlighting the strategic importance of food security in a context of growing demand.
