UN warns global warming threshold could be breached by 2030

12:12

By: Azzat Manal

UN warns global warming threshold could be breached by 2030

The United Nations has warned that keeping global warming within the 1.5°C limit set against pre-industrial levels is becoming increasingly difficult, with current trends suggesting that the threshold could be exceeded as early as 2030.

Global temperatures are already around 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, intensifying climate-related risks in many parts of the world. Prolonged droughts are putting pressure on agricultural production, wildfires are becoming more frequent and severe in parts of southern Europe, glaciers are retreating at an accelerating pace, and ocean temperatures continue to reach unprecedented levels. Natural climate patterns such as El Niño can temporarily amplify these effects by pushing global temperatures even higher.

Scientists are particularly concerned about potential climate tipping points, including the continued loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, disruptions to major ocean circulation systems and changes to the Amazon rainforest's ability to absorb carbon dioxide. Once some of these processes reach critical thresholds, reversing their effects could become extremely difficult. Small island nations in the Pacific are among the communities facing the greatest risks from rising temperatures and sea levels.

Despite the worsening outlook, experts say there is still an opportunity to limit the long-term damage. A rapid reduction in the use of fossil fuels could allow global temperatures to peak at around 1.8°C before gradually declining. Achieving such a trajectory would require deep cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions, large-scale ecosystem restoration and the development of technologies capable of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Reaching net-zero emissions by around 2050 would not necessarily be enough on its own. Experts also anticipate the need to remove substantial quantities of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, potentially reaching around one gigatonne. Proposed approaches range from nature-based solutions, such as reforestation and ecosystem restoration, to technological methods including enhanced rock weathering and ocean alkalinity enhancement.

The world has made some progress since the adoption of the Paris Agreement. Earlier projections pointed toward warming of roughly 3.6°C by the end of the century, while current policies and commitments indicate a lower trajectory of about 2.6°C. Renewable energy has also expanded rapidly, particularly solar power, while electric transport has gained momentum.

However, global greenhouse-gas emissions have yet to enter a sustained decline. The United Nations therefore continues to stress that faster and more ambitious action is needed to reduce emissions, protect ecosystems and prevent the most severe consequences of climate change.