UN warns aid cuts could reverse progress in child mortality

13:13

By: Azzat Manal

UN warns aid cuts could reverse progress in child mortality

The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has warned that the long-term decline in child mortality could be reversed as international development assistance falls, putting millions of children at greater risk, particularly in poorer and fragile countries.

Over the past two decades, sustained investment in vaccination programmes, nutrition, healthcare systems, clean water, sanitation and hygiene has helped reduce the annual number of deaths among children under five from around 10.1 million to 4.9 million. UNICEF says this progress represents one of the most significant achievements in global development and was made possible by sustained political commitment and reliable funding.

However, official development assistance declined sharply in 2025, falling by 23.1% globally. According to UNICEF, this was the largest annual decrease recorded since these figures began to be tracked and marked the second consecutive year of decline, bringing aid levels back to approximately where they stood in 2015.

The organisation warned that shrinking external assistance is occurring alongside rising debt burdens in low-income countries, while many national governments lack the financial capacity to maintain essential public services. The combination could place increasing pressure on healthcare and social protection systems that have helped improve survival rates among children.

Children in fragile and conflict-affected countries are expected to be particularly vulnerable. UNICEF estimates that nearly half of the potential increase in child deaths could occur in countries experiencing political or security instability, where health systems are already under severe pressure.

The organisation also projects that, if current trends continue without urgent action, approximately 27.3 million children could die before reaching the age of five between now and 2030. A significant proportion of these deaths is expected to involve newborns, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where poverty and limited access to healthcare remain major challenges.

The warning highlights the close relationship between international financing and progress in child survival. Vaccination, maternal and newborn care, adequate nutrition, clean water and basic sanitation are among the interventions that have contributed to the dramatic reduction in childhood deaths over recent decades.

UNICEF argues that maintaining these gains will require continued investment rather than a withdrawal of international support. Without adequate and predictable funding, countries with already fragile health systems could struggle to preserve essential services, potentially reversing decades of progress.

The latest projections therefore place child health at the centre of the debate over development assistance. As international aid budgets come under increasing pressure, the ability of governments and international organisations to protect essential health services could determine whether global child mortality continues to decline or begins to rise again.