Toronto Stock Exchange Hesitates Amid Strong Bank Results and Trade Tensions with the US

Wednesday 26 August 2026 - 11:35

Futures tied to Canada’s main stock index are moving in different directions on Wednesday morning. Investors are welcoming the strong results from the National Bank of Canada while remaining cautious about the escalating trade tensions between Ottawa and Washington, as well as the upcoming US inflation data.

The Canadian stock market is taking a pause after reaching a new record in the previous session. At the market opening, investors are faced with mixed signals: on one hand, the encouraging results from major Canadian banks; on the other, uncertainties related to the trade conflict with the United States.

At 6:40 AM Eastern Time, futures on the S&P/TSX index were virtually unchanged at 2,164.20 points.

National Bank Boosts Market Sentiment

Quarterly results from the banking sector are one of the key elements monitored by investors. The National Bank of Canada reported an increase in its profit for the third quarter, driven particularly by the performance of its wealth management activities.

This announcement adds to several results that exceeded expectations recorded this week by major Canadian banks. The Bank of Montreal and the Bank of Nova Scotia had already released solid performances on Tuesday.

These announcements have helped support the Canadian market and allowed the TSX to set a record in the previous session.

Ottawa Intensifies Trade Response

However, attention remains largely focused on the economic relations between Canada and the United States.

Ottawa has announced new tariffs targeting approximately $20 billion in annual US imports, in response to the latest trade measures decided by Washington.

These counter-tariffs, which will take effect on September 8, include tariffs of 15%, 25%, and 50% on about 700 products imported from the United States.

This new step in the trade conflict could weigh on the outlook for some Canadian companies, as investors try to assess the lasting impact of tariffs on trade between the two economies.

US Inflation at the Center of Expectations

Beyond corporate results and trade tensions, markets are also monitoring the release of new US inflation data.

The expected figures are set to provide additional insights into the trajectory that the US Federal Reserve may take regarding interest rates. Higher or more persistent inflation than anticipated could complicate the outlook for monetary easing.

Investors are therefore cautious ahead of this release, which could influence bond, currency, and stock markets.

Gold and Oil Prices Decline

In the commodities markets, gold was down 0.8%, while silver fell 0.2%.

Oil experienced a more significant decline. Brent dropped about 2.9%, and West Texas Intermediate fell nearly 2.7%.

This decline comes as discussions between Iran and Oman have revived hopes for a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A more normal flow in this strategic area could alleviate concerns about global oil supply.

For Canadian investors, the session is expected to be particularly dependent on the simultaneous evolution of bank results, the trade standoff with Washington, and new economic data from the United States.