Super El Niño threat compounds Iran war risks to global food supply

Friday 10 April 2026 - 16:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Super El Niño threat compounds Iran war risks to global food supply

The growing probability of a powerful El Niño event later this year is adding pressure to an already fragile global food system, as conflict in Iran continues to disrupt fertilizer supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Economists and climate scientists warn that the combination of supply chain disruptions and extreme weather could trigger the most severe food crisis since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center estimates a 62% chance that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026 and persist through the end of the year. Forecasting remains uncertain due to the so called spring predictability barrier, but recent signals have increased concern.

The Weather Channel reported unusually strong westerly wind bursts in early April, potentially the most intense in more than 50 years, along with twin tropical cyclones in the Pacific. These conditions raise the likelihood of a “super” El Niño, defined by sea surface temperatures exceeding 2 degrees Celsius above average.

Paul Donovan warned that droughts and water shortages could have a greater impact than fertilizer constraints if such an event materializes. Countries including India, Australia, Brazil, and Argentina are seen as particularly exposed, while the European Union has flagged drought risks for agricultural seasons in Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan.

At the same time, the conflict involving Iran has tightened fertilizer supply. Fighting that began with US and Israeli strikes on February 28 has effectively restricted access through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries around 30% of global seaborne fertilizer trade.

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, nearly half of global urea exports and about 30% of ammonia shipments pass through the strait. Additional pressure has come from China’s export restrictions on fertilizers and the suspension of urea production by QatarEnergy after halting liquefied natural gas operations.

The World Food Programme said 318 million people already face acute levels of hunger in 2026. If the conflict persists beyond June and oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, an additional 45 million people could fall into severe food insecurity.

Analysts warn that the combination of war driven supply shocks and extreme climate conditions could significantly worsen the situation, amplifying risks across global food markets and vulnerable regions.