Spanish Gas to Morocco: Declining Flows Raise Concerns About Energy Security

08:18

The volumes of gas transported from Spain to Morocco have sharply decreased since mid-August. Data from the Spanish gas operator Enagás GTS allows for measuring this contraction, but does not suffice to determine its origin. Several scenarios remain open, including Moroccan arbitration, technical constraints, and a possible change on the Spanish side.

A decline in flows that is rapid enough to attract attention, yet whose causes remain unknown. This is the situation observed since mid-August on the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline, used in reverse to transport imported natural gas to Morocco via Spanish infrastructures.

Daily data published by Enagás GTS show a clear decrease in volumes transiting through the Tarifa interconnection point. After reaching 30.57 GWh on August 14, flows have gradually dropped to about 20 to 21 GWh per day.

A contraction of nearly one-third in just a few days

The evolution is particularly visible in the daily readings. Volumes fell from 30.57 GWh on August 14 to 27.16 GWh the following day, before dropping to 23.88 GWh on August 16 and 23.78 GWh on August 17.

The decline intensified on August 18, with only 20.70 GWh recorded. In the following days, flows remained close to this level, averaging about 21 GWh between August 19 and 23.

The difference from the usual levels, which are around 29 to 31 GWh, is therefore significant. The technical maximum export capacity at this interconnection is approximately 32 GWh per day.

The data thus unequivocally establish the reality of the decline. However, they do not allow for identifying the cause.

A decline whose origin remains to be determined

Enagás statistics record the quantities effectively transported but do not specify why the volumes have decreased.

Several explanations can be considered. Morocco may have temporarily reduced its purchases based on its needs, stocks, or economic considerations. A technical intervention on the infrastructures may also have an impact on the volumes.

Another possibility is a change in supply conditions or the quantities made available from Spain.

In the absence of additional information, it would therefore be premature to directly attribute this decline to a political decision from Madrid or, conversely, to a deliberate intention from Rabat to reduce its imports.

A political context that fuels speculation

This evolution occurs, however, in a particular energy and diplomatic climate between Spain and Morocco.

A few days before the decline in flows, Spanish media had mentioned the hypothesis of using Morocco's energy dependence as a means of political pressure. The Spanish government publicly rejected this possibility on August 18, 2026, denying the existence of a plan to use gas or electrical interconnections against Morocco.

This denial is an important element of the context. However, it does not, on its own, explain the decline observed in Enagás' data.

At this stage, no public information allows us to assert that the reduction in volumes constitutes a measure of Spanish retaliation. Any conclusion of this nature would therefore be premature.

A dependence inherited from the closure of the pipeline in 2021

Behind this episode lies a more longstanding strategic question. Since Algeria closed the Maghreb-Europe pipeline in October 2021, Morocco has developed a supply mechanism relying notably on the import of liquefied natural gas.

The fuel can be received and regasified in Spanish infrastructures before being transported to Morocco in reverse flow through the Maghreb-Europe pipeline.

This organization has notably allowed for the supply of power plants in Tahaddart and Aïn Beni Mathar. It has also provided a solution after the cessation of Algerian gas transit to Morocco.

However, this mechanism simultaneously creates a dependence on the infrastructures located in Spain, both for certain logistical operations and for the transportation of fuel.

Morocco faces the challenge of energy sovereignty

The decline observed in August thus highlights a vulnerability that goes far beyond the mere evolution of flows over a few days.

For Rabat, the challenge now is to enhance the country's capacity to secure its supply independently of the infrastructures or decisions of an external partner. The development of national reception and regasification capacities, increasing storage possibilities, and diversifying import sources appear to be essential levers.

This strategy must also fit within a broader energy policy, combining the development of renewables, securing gas supply for power plants, and improving national infrastructures.

The figures now call for responses

The decrease in volumes is documented by public data. What remains to be established is its exact cause.

An official explanation would notably help distinguish a simple temporary variation in demand from a more structural change in supply conditions.

For both Morocco and Spain, transparency on this point is all the more important given that the Maghreb-Europe pipeline occupies a particular place in the energy relations between the two countries.