SpaceX valuation debate shifts toward AI peers ahead of record IPO
SpaceX is approaching a potential record-breaking IPO, with investors increasingly valuing the company alongside artificial intelligence infrastructure firms rather than traditional aerospace peers, a shift used to justify a projected $1.75 trillion valuation.
According to reports, some institutional investors are comparing SpaceX to companies such as Palantir Technologies and infrastructure players like GE Vernova and Vertiv instead of legacy groups like Boeing or AT&T. The rationale centers on long-term cash flow potential and growth rather than sector classification.
Chief financial officer Bret Johnsen told bankers the company is targeting what he described as one of the largest total addressable markets, with the space economy estimated at $370 billion. He placed the potential market for Starlink connectivity at $1.6 trillion.
At a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX would trade at roughly 110 times projected 2025 revenue, far above Palantir’s multiple of about 43 times. The company aims to raise $75 billion, surpassing the $29 billion raised in the 2019 IPO of Saudi Aramco.
Not all analysts support the approach. Aswath Damodaran of New York University said the valuation reflects investors working backward from a predetermined conclusion. He argued the comparisons to AI infrastructure firms do not hold under scrutiny, noting that GE Vernova and Vertiv trade at much lower revenue multiples.
SpaceX has confidentially filed for its IPO with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and plans an analyst day on April 21, followed by a visit to the xAI data center in Memphis, Tennessee. The company is expected to begin its investor roadshow in early June, with an unusually large allocation reserved for retail investors.
Major banks including Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs are leading the offering.
The valuation marks a sharp increase from SpaceX’s $800 billion secondary sale in December 2025, boosted by its merger with xAI, founded by Elon Musk, which created a combined entity valued at $1.25 trillion.
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